Comment on Has AI Already Killed How-To Nonfiction? Sales Trends, My Personal Data, and What It Might Mean for the Future by Andrew Chapman

First, we need to be clear that no one – from the fanboys to the doomsayers – can say for sure what will shake out with AI. We're not even fully into the first-order effects, so it's impossible to say what the second- and third-order effects will be. All we can say is that history has shown these to be a net positive in the long run. Society is better now in nearly every measurable way than it was 500 years ago.

Second, it's worth noting that Ferriss's experience in this is likely outsize. His body of work is enormous and has largely been publicly available to LLMs for all these years, unlike lesser-prolific and lesser-known authors. So for better or worse, the typical author won't see similar effects.

Third, the near-term lesson for content creators is that we need to stay in the equation. In other words, we have to offer something of us that AI can't match. For podcasters, it might be exclusive Q&A sessions; for course creators, it might be a personal coaching element; for authors, it might be special content that LLMs don't have access to.

Which brings me to my final point:

There's a clear model that's already occurred – music. Music artists already suffered a similar tsunami when streaming took over. Digital downloads (which had previously killed CD sales) plummeted as people went to streaming subscriptions that pay artists nearly nothing by comparison. As a result, musicians have had to create new ways to monetize their audiences – VIP packages at concerts, vinyl special releases, higher ticket prices with bigger shows, online immersive video, residency gigs, and more. While none of the streaming revolution was related to LLMs, the circumstances were much the same. The bottom of music sales dropped out, there was a free fall, and artists had to get creative. Fortunately, artists are creative by definition. So while non-fiction content creators might not think of themselves as artists, they'll need to, to survive the AI tsunami. Look at what music artists have done and mimic that.

It wouldn't surprise me if "human made" will be the equivalent of "hand made" in the near future. Look at the ongoing success of Etsy, for example. Some people will pay a premium for something that was not AI generated; people who don't care will buy the mass-market product.

As with every new technology and tool of the past, we have a choice in what we make of it. And has the saying goes, even if you don't choose, you've still made a choice.