AI回调是买入机会？关键标普500点位与一条债券市场信号
2024年7月运输板块与半导体板块出现大幅分化后，半导体随后下跌40%；当前两者再次出现类似背离，引发对AI行情是否见顶的讨论。
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收藏Coherent Q4：AI 光模块驱动季度营收冲刺 30 亿美元
Coherent 季度营收首次突破 20 亿美元，环比增速从 6%-7% 提升至 13.3%，管理层预计 2027 年底前季度营收将达 30 亿美元，分析师共识为 26.3 亿美元。AI 光模块需求是主要驱动力，但同比增速仍明显落后于竞争对手 Lumentum。
Lumentum FQ4：AI光通信赢家持续领跑
Lumentum第四季度营收同比翻倍至109%、环比增24.5%，连续三季度环比增速超20%。调整后毛利率突破50%，全年12.5亿美元指引中值比原计划提前一个季度达成，下季度指引同比增速进一步加速至134.2%。AI集群训练与推理对光互联的需求持续加速，EML、CW激光器、OCS、NPO/CPO等核心产品线全面受益。
西部数据FQ4财报：HAMR技术CY27年量产，长期协议定价仍需明朗
西部数据HAMR技术将推迟到CY27年量产，落后希捷约一年。管理层未披露长期协议定价细节，分析师多次追问无果。AI推理驱动的数据存储需求增长仍支撑HDD行业长期前景。
Cloudflare Q2：Agentic AI 拐点已至
Cloudflare 管理层在 Q2 财报电话会上公开称超大规模云厂商业务已商品化、整体"缺乏吸引力"，并认为自身商业模式更适合 Agentic AI 时代。作者认为这一判断有道理，NET 可能站对了方向。
Macom FQ3: Diversified AI Optics Portfolio Drives 40% QoQ Data Center Growth
This quarter, Macom’s Data Center segment officially pulled ahead of its Defense segment, and this lead is expected to widen as we move into Q4 and beyond. This isn’t too surprising given data center ...
Applied Optoelectronics Q2: Demand is 20% to 40% Above an Already-Aggressive Ramp
Applied Optoelectronics delivered its fifth consecutive quarter of record revenue in Q2, however, the more important story is what lies ahead. Management shared details on a very steep 800G and 1.6T r...
SiTime Q2: Blowout Growth from Timing; Rising Density
The I/O Fund’s positions appear to be competing over which stock will have the biggest blowout quarter, with SiTime being a strong contender in Q2. This evening the company reported revenue of $157.4 ...
Big Tech’s AI Revenue Is Surging, but Suppliers Will Still Be the Bigger Winners
Big Tech’s AI Capex has stomped estimates for multiple years and analysts are now calling for capex to surge to $1 trillion in 2027. However, hyperscalers have long battled investor concerns around wh...
SanDisk FQ4: Inference to Drive Demand and Visibility for Years
SanDisk’s revenue reached $8.97 billion, up 51% sequentially and 372% year-over-year, with approximately one-third of the QoQ increase coming from higher bit shipments and two-thirds from pricing. Dat...
AMD Q2: Venice Meets Helios in 2H26 and 2027
AMD’s Q2 revenue reached a record $11.5 billion, up 50% year-over-year, while data center more than doubled to $6.7 billion. As a percentage of revenue, data center is at 58% of total revenue up from ...
Astera Labs Q2: Scorpio is Locked and Loaded
Astera Labs Q2 offered 27% sequential growth and 104% year-over-year growth, driven by record Aries revenue and a faster ramp in Scorpio. The acceleration is more pronounced next quarter with a guide ...
AI Capex to Hit $1 Trillion – And Estimates Are Still Too Low
Big Tech capex is the driving force behind the AI infrastructure trade, yet Wall Street has repeatedly underestimated the sheer scale of the buildout. Currently, in 2026, the guidance for $732.5 billi...
Lam Research：芯片复杂度提升带动沉积与刻蚀设备需求增长
TSMC将2026年资本开支上调80亿美元至620亿，Lam Research作为WFE设备商直接受益。NAND设备转换支出从原计划的数年提前至2027年底前集中释放，200层到300层再到500层的升级周期可能使Lam在NAND的单机台服务市场翻倍。2027年Lam增长驱动力排序：DRAM第一，Foundry第二，NAND第三。
Silicon Motion二季度：启动盘驱动强劲财报，MonTitan仍需等待放量
Silicon Motion Q3营收同比翻倍，从消费级NAND控制器向AI存储转型。MonTitan AI催化剂要到2027年才放量，当前增长主要来自传统移动/客户端SSD市场份额提升和启动盘（含汽车存储Ferri）的强劲增长。在Top 20报告中排第三，低于Micron和SanDisk，但投资组合配置比例高于两者。
Token增长激增：谁是AI基础设施的最大受益者
AI推理token处理量远超早期预估，算力、网络和电力三大基础设施环节成为最大受益者。基金博客文章梳理了AI栈中受益最明显的三个领域及代表性公司。
Broad Market 市场 webinar 回放（2026年7月30日）
IO Fund 发布7月30日市场 webinar 回放，主题覆盖 Broad Market 和 I/O Portfolio。
AI Token Demand is Shattering Forecasts
Total annual token processing is no longer measured in billions or trillions of tokens, but in the quadrillions and beyond. As annual token processing is now tracked in units with 15 trailing zeros, i...
Meta Q2：出售算力传递矛盾信号
Meta 2026年Q2营收同比增长28%，但经营利润率下滑且自由现金流濒临转负，公司通过出售算力来弥补资本开支压力。Meta称AI算力需求旺盛、溢价明显，但同时又在第三方采购算力，逻辑存在矛盾。核心业务增长难以支撑AI投入，引发对AI战略可持续性的质疑。
Broad Market Webinar Invitation - 07/30 @ 1:30 PM PST - Broad Market, I/O Portfolio
This week's webinar will cover the Broad Market, and I/O Portfolio.
希捷Q4：每EB价格翻倍的同时每TB成本下降
希捷Q4财报显示营收同比增长49%，Mozaic 3+平台已量产，Mozaic 4+正在爬坡，Mozaic 5+将于2027年底开始资格认证。每EB价格预计增长10%-20%，而HAMR技术推动TB成本下降、毛利率提升。
Bloom 第二季度：营收增 166%，积压订单增速更快
Bloom Energy Q2 营收同比增长 166%，达到 10.65 亿美元，超出分析师预期 29%。公司 backlog 增速快于营收，最新数据未更新，但 Q4 时 backlog 已达 200 亿美元（产品 60 亿、服务 140 亿）。客户正下更长周期订单，推动 backlog 加速增长。超大规模数据中心计划明年建设 30-40GW 产能，但 Bloom 警告电力供应可能延迟，这将强化其对现场固态氧化物燃料电池的需求。主要 hyperscalers 和 neoclouds 正在验证和批准 Bloom 技术。