AI Capex to Hit $1 Trillion – And Estimates Are Still Too Low

Big Tech capex is the driving force behind the AI infrastructure trade, yet Wall Street has repeatedly underestimated the sheer scale of the buildout. Currently, in 2026, the guidance for $732.5 billion is now 158% higher than forecasts issued two years ago.  Last week, the market received confirmation that Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google are expected to deploy approximately $432 billion in the second half of 2026 alone. This means the flashy forecast that capex will reach $1 trillion in 2027 is now firmly within reach.