TSMC 3Q’26: Easing Off the Brake

Last year, Ben Thompson described TSMC as the brake on the AI buildout: “If Altman and OpenAI are the ones pushing to accelerate the AI infrastructure buildout, it’s Wei and TSMC that are the brakes.”

TSMC has been easing off that brake all year. Its 2026 capex budget went from $52–56 Billion in January to $60–64 Billion in July, vs ~$41 Billion spent in 2025. Landing anywhere in that range means spending $19–23 Billion in 4Q’26 alone; even the low end is more than TSMC spent in any full year before 2021. On yesterday’s call, CEO C.C. Wei put it bluntly:

“We have no intention to leave food on the table for others, and we want to capture every piece of business possible.”

Just based on that quote alone, you can tell things are going well for TSMC at the moment. Revenue of $46.7 Billion (+41% YoY) came in ~2% above the top of guidance, gross margin held at 66.4% even as 2nm jumped from 3% to 8% of wafer revenue, and 2026 revenue is now expected to grow “around 44%,” the third upgrade this year. The 4Q’26 guide of $52.3–54.3 Billion implies ~58% YoY growth at the midpoint.

I will share more about the quarter behind the paywall.

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