ASML 3Q’26: 2030 Arrived Four Years Early

I know the semi stocks are getting shot at the market due to Anthropic’s ARR “miss” yesterday, but ASML’s 3Q’26 earnings was not the place to look to gauge any hiccup in AI. Total net sales were a record €11.7 Billion (+55% YoY), gross margin a record 57.5%, operating margin 44.4%, and normalized EPS more than doubled to ~€11.6. The 4Q’26 guide of €14.2–15.2 Billion implies ~51% YoY growth at the midpoint, more revenue in a single quarter than ASML generated in all of 2019. Full-year 2026 guidance is now €44–45 Billion at a ~56% gross margin, up from €34–39 Billion and 51–53% in January.

I will share more about the quarter behind the paywall.

Subscribers get the daily journal and five+ years of Deep Dives, i.e. full-length analyses with financial models on 70+ companies. The daily is just how I think out loud between the Deep Dives!