Review|NBIS 26Q2: Vineland Risk Eases; Demand and Pricing Remain Strong

Key Takeaways

Nebius delivered an overall positive Q2.

The biggest pre-earnings risk—whether the Vineland 2 delay would force a cut to FY26 revenue guidance—did not materialize. At the same time, GPU demand, pricing, and Token Factory all came in stronger than expected.

Q2 group revenue reached $582Mn, up 46% QoQ, while annualized run-rate revenue increased from $1.9Bn in Q1 to $3.0Bn. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 32% to 41%. The company maintained its FY26 guidance of $3.0–3.4Bn in revenue, $7–9Bn in ARR, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 40%.

Relative to Q1, we see three key incremental developments:

• Demand and pricing were stronger than expected. Management said it could sell out its entire 2027 capacity today if it chose to do so, while the company has begun using short-duration contracts and capacity auctions to drive higher monetization per MW.
• Token Factory has moved from product-market fit to P&L contribution. The CFO explicitly cited Token Factory as a contributor to both Q2 revenue growth and margin expansion.
• The Vineland 2 risk has shifted from a potential guidance cut to revenue timing. The company maintained its YE26 connected-power target of 800MW–1GW. Still, it clarified that it takes a few months for connected power to translate into revenue generation, implying that a meaningful portion of this capacity will only become active progressively through 1H27.

As a result, we still see a reasonable possibility that FY26 revenue ultimately comes in below the $3.2Bn midpoint of guidance, although an outright guidance cut is no longer our base case. More importantly, following Q2, we see greater upside to 2027 revenue/MW and margin potential than to FY26 estimates.

Demand Remains Strong; Pricing Is Better Than Expected

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