AI's Biggest Problem May Be the Speed of Adjustment

In this bonus-sized episode of The Professor Is In, I dive even deeper into the strange, wonderful case study of bootmaking in Victorian England to think through what AI might do to your work, your wages, or even where you live.

Economic historian Hillary Vipond found that even though new technology led to huge labor savings — bootmaker productivity quadrupled! — total bootmaking jobs barely budged. But underneath the surface, the type of work changed dramatically. The cordswainer disappeared; the factory foreman, machinist, and riveter arrived. (In our moment, that’s the translator seeing wages fall and the “prompt engineer” rising in their place.)

The good news: a bigger pie usually means bigger servings for all. But the catch is the speed of adjustment. If AI really replaces half of white-collar work in five years (as some tech CEOs claim), that’s a disruption far bigger than anything any of us have experienced (shoutout to COVID and the financial crisis).

My advice: become the most AI-savvy person in your workplace, keep your skills broad rather than narrow, and double down on the basics — because AI probably won’t take your job, but someone using AI might.

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