Preview|PLTR: 2Q26 Growth Momentum Remains Strong

We expect Palantir to remain on a strong growth trajectory in 2Q26. Government momentum is broad-based across U.S. defense, civilian federal agencies, and international government use cases, as the company evolves from a project-based software vendor into a national-scale AI infrastructure platform. Commercial growth continues to benefit from AIP adoption and Palantir’s Ontology capabilities.

1. Earnings Outlook: Overview

A. Government: Record 1Q obligations imply 2Q government revenue of approximately $1,030mm, up 86%+ y/y and accelerating from approximately 76% in 1Q26

U.S. Government: We remain constructive on 2Q26 revenue and expect government growth to accelerate further

• Historical pattern: Based on our tracking of government contract data, incremental U.S. government obligations booked in one quarter typically drive the sequential increase in government revenue in the following quarter.
• Historically, approximately 23% of government obligations booked in quarter T convert into incremental revenue in T+1.
• Reported government obligations totaled approximately $630mm in 1Q26, implying roughly $148mm of incremental U.S. Government revenue in 2Q26.
• On this basis, we estimate 2Q26 U.S. Government revenue of approximately $835mm, versus approximately $687mm in 1Q26.

Source: FUNDA Platform - PLTR Play; FUNDA Research

International Government: Revenue estimated at approximately $195mm

• Our statistical analysis indicates that quarterly International Government revenue is highly correlated with the prior quarter’s government customer count and the current quarter’s U.S. Government revenue.
• Key thesis: International Government revenue does not grow in isolation; it scales alongside Palantir’s penetration of government customers and the strength of its U.S. Government business.
• Based on our regression analysis, we estimate 2Q26 International Government revenue of approximately $195mm.

Government Business Trends and Developments (1Q25 to Present, Based on Publicly Available Information)

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