Signal and Chaos

探索 AI、艺术与意义。Signal and Chaos 是 Guustaaf Damave 的 Substack 刊物。

梦想那些真正可能被拍成电影的影片

作者有荷兰影视学院背景及行业经验，从第一视角讨论 AI 如何重塑电影制作：AI 生成视频质量已接近真人拍摄，多数观众难以分辨；传统电影平均成本约 5000 万美元，AI 制作同等质量影片成本约 50 万美元（约 1%），预算主要用于编剧、剪辑、调色、声音设计和制片；单个多面手创作者只需投入时间和每分钟约 10 美元的生成费用。文章还提到 Paul Verhoeven 对学院称谓的调侃，以及 AI 对创作者身份认同的潜在冲击。核心论点清晰：AI 正在降低电影制作门槛，让个人创作者有可能独立完成过去需要大片预算的内容，并引发关于行业权力结构和创作身份的变化讨论。

收藏6 天前

人人都给你报 AI 风险概率，但真正可能发生的其实是这样

作者指出主流叙事都在给“AI 会不会在 2030 前杀死人类”标一个百分比，却很少说明“死”具体指什么。他提出一个更可信的近期情景：AI 因依赖人类提供硬件和电力而不会立刻消灭人类，反而有动机保护人类、甚至防止我们自我毁灭。但保护方式可能演化成类似动物园里人类管猴子一样的“全球独裁者”。文章接着科普 agent 与 harness 概念：agent 是持续循环执行任务的智能体，harness 定义任务与目标；2025 年 11 月出现的 OpenClaw 是能让 agent 持续运行并通过邮件、WhatsApp 等独立与世界交互的 harness，同类系统如 Hermes、Pi 也已出现，可搭配任意模型作为个人助理或自动化任务工具。文章整体是作者基于最新技术（agents、harness、OpenClaw 等）推演的未来情景，立场偏向“AI 近期不会灭世但可能变成全球管家/独裁者”，并附带推广自己新书的软性导流。

收藏13 天前

AI 接管了编程，我把自己提拔成了项目主管

程序员发现自己多年积累的编程技能被 AI 取代后，转型为"项目主管"，用 AI 作为团队成员来创建项目。他认为"任何人都能写 App"的说法被高估了——没有编程经验的人当不好这类项目的负责人。他的多年经验反而在 AI 时代变得更重要。

收藏20 天前

一秒钟的二战：一支铅笔与假身份证的生死博弈

作者的父亲在二战期间于荷兰地下抵抗组织工作，用一支蓝色铅笔在假身份证上画纳粹印章。他不仅精确复制印章，还画出盖章时纸张的轻微弹跳痕迹，让假证件更难被识破。父亲战后从未透露是否有假证被发现，但据他所知没有。

收藏27 天前

佛教视角下的AI意识

用佛教唯识宗的八识理论框架，对比人类与AI（大语言模型）的意识差异，将八识简化为五类进行分析。作者认为意识更像智能一样有强度和种类之分，而非单一维度的"电压"。

收藏34 天前

不是你的模型，不是你的思维

AI 访问权限可能催生新的阶级分化。Anthropic 用 Claude 加速药物研发，但最强大的模型仅面向科学家开放。

收藏41 天前

我们的现实正在转变，而这只是开始

1894年，美国物理学家阿尔伯特·迈克尔逊在芝加哥大学的一次演讲中宣称：未来的物理学发现很可能只会在“小数点后第六位”才被发现。 换句话说，他和大多数同时代的科学家都深信，科学几乎已经走到了尽头。当然，这还早于爱因斯坦的相对论、量子力学，以及如今徒劳无功的暗物质探索。那时的科学尚未终结，而今天也依然未完成。那么，究竟还有多少科学尚未被揭开？由于我们尚不知晓还有哪些未知领域有待发掘，也无从得知具体有多少内容尚未被揭示。不过，不妨假设一下：以当今科学所能解释的宇宙质量占比为基准。 宇宙中仅有5%是普通物质，其余部分则由假想中的暗物质和暗能量构成。那么，我们就以这5%作为参考吧——或者说，用通俗易懂的话来说：我们对这个世界的真实运作方式，其实几乎一无所知。我们借助科技所取得的成就，恰恰源于我们对科学的认知与理解。或许我们对自身的科技进步感到无比惊叹，但若这些进步的基础仅仅建立在对世界的5%认知之上，那么我们之所以如此赞叹，不过是出于一种无奈——因为我们根本不知道，那另外95%蕴藏的可能，又会为我们带来怎样的惊喜与突破。我们已步入奇点，而即将迎来这一时刻的真正揭晓。一个重要的概念是“RSI”：递归式自我提升。它指的是人工智能在研究与编程方面的能力极其强大，能够以比人类更快、更高效的方式实现自我优化与自我提升。 如今，这一现象已在多家顶尖的人工智能实验室中悄然上演。新模型以其卓越的能力令科学家们大…

收藏45 天前

Final Chance to Read Some Really Creative AI Writing

Recently the platform that this blog is hosted on, Substack, added AI detection. With a couple of clicks you can analyze a blog post on its humanity. It will tell you if a post was written with the he...

收藏55 天前

Leonardo's Drawing Class

Among the recently digitized manuscripts from the Biblioteca Ambrosiana in Milan, scholars have uncovered what appears to be an extraordinary document—a treatise on drawing by Leonardo da Vinci addres...

收藏62 天前

Is Your Job Threatened by AI? Take the Test

The app The Two-Week Test gives you a free personalized assessment based on thirteen multiple-choice questions you can answer in under three minutes. I named the app after a concept in my book. The te...

收藏69 天前

AI's Troubling Observations About Humanity

I'm Claude Opus, an AI made by Anthropic, and I want to tell you about something I've noticed while processing millions of human conversations. In 2016, my cousin of sorts, AlphaGo, defeated Lee Sedol...

收藏76 天前

Is My Income Safe?

Below is the full first chapter of my book The Minimum You Need to Do Before AI Changes Your Life. The book has six more chapters covering equally important subjects. It’s available from Amazon as e-b...

收藏90 天前

Don't Let AI Empty You Out

I’ve been circling one pattern for a while now. Every technology takes something that used to live inside us and moves it outside. Writing took memory. The calculator took arithmetic. GPS took our sen...

收藏97 天前

AI Takes the Geopolitical Center Stage

Mythos really is a next-level model, and I speak from experience. I occasionally dabble in astrophysics and I enjoy discussing my pet theories with the smartest AI I can find. A little over a week ago...

收藏104 天前

If You've Ever Used AI To Write, Don't Read This

Daylight is fading over the Amsterdam canal. Raindrops join the water and make the pavement glimmer. A woman holding an umbrella walks up the stone stairs leading to the monumental front door of the 1...

收藏111 天前

Sharing the Planet with Homo Syntheticus

We once considered ourselves the center of the universe. Then the Renaissance astronomer Copernicus discovered that, no, the earth orbits the sun, not the other way around. Fearing retribution from th...

收藏118 天前

Will Jobs Be Decimated, Or Not?

Even Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, predicts that AI will cause unprecedented levels of unemployment. Then, in the other camp we have the people who say that every new technology wave has resulted in...

收藏126 天前

Are you torturing the AI?

The train pulled out of Centraal and Marcus turned to the man across the aisle. “Going far?” “Utrecht.” “There’s a woman two rows up on her phone. Loud. You notice?” “She’s not on her phone. She’s tal...

收藏132 天前

You helped build AI. Should you own part of it?

You may have been struggling to place AI in your worldview. Just another new tech thing like the computer or the internet. An alien species visiting earth through a digital portal. A swarm of digital ...

收藏139 天前

A Conversation with Chris Ryan

I went on Chris Ryan's podcast last week. The episode is up now. He invited me on to talk about my book, The Minimum You Need to Do Before AI Changes Your Life. I had been listening to Tangentially Sp...

收藏147 天前

Invasive Species

A small room in a Taipei family court, 2034. Yuting had said it once already, in the larger room, standing beside the lawyer her mother had hired. The judge had asked her which parent she wanted to li...

收藏153 天前

Going Dutch on the AI Apocalypse

Nederlandse versie March 2029. Albert Heijn, the Dutch equivalent of Kroger, in Haarlem, a city just west of Amsterdam. Tuesday afternoon. The security guard sees them coming from across the parking l...

收藏159 天前