Will Jobs Be Decimated, Or Not?

Even Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, predicts that AI will cause unprecedented levels of unemployment. Then, in the other camp we have the people who say that every new technology wave has resulted in new jobs that didn’t exist before. Radio gave us the audio engineer and the DJ. Aviation gave us the pilot and the flight attendant. You get the idea, jobs disappear, other jobs appear. This camp says there’s nothing to worry about, jobs will go away, but there will be plenty new ones to replace them. No one in 1900 could name the new jobs that would emerge in the subsequent decades.

The way this pattern works is that whatever gets mechanized moves the human activity to the next layer above it. Electronic spreadsheets eliminated the manual calculation work and created analyst jobs. The top layer, let’s call it the decision layer, always had enough room for new jobs to appear. What makes AI different, is that it is a technology that itself is moving into that layer, and there is a ceiling to it.

An important argument of the “there will be new jobs” people is that there is always unlimited demand. So if it takes fewer people to do the work, the increased demand will make sure that the employment level will be maintained. What is to stop people from getting a 50 room house if they can get it? Then there will be work for new architects, electricians, carpenters, etc.

If AI handles the decisions and future robots will handle the building, then even everyone building oversized mansions for themselves will not bring new jobs. Once robots catch up, the AI / robot combination will permanently break the connection between demand and jobs.

Even if new jobs will appear in the decision layer above AI, due to the cognitive requirements of operating at that level, only a tiny fraction of the population will be able to fill such positions. With earlier tech waves the farmhand moved to the factory and a little training was enough. To do the jobs in the space left by AI, a little, or a lot of training is not going to do it.

In mid 2026, robots are not yet capable of replacing most physical work. They can do simple tasks like mail sorting and moving parts around but AI still has to be integrated into the physical limbs of humanoid robots, and that's some way off. There will come a time, though, in the not too distant future where the economics will all but dictate that most physical work is done by robots.

There is one type of job that seems unassailable, at least for as long as people can still tell the difference between real humans and humanoid robots. Any time someone demands a human is part of the service, that job is safe. Examples: in a fine restaurant people expect human wait staff. Claude may be able to take on certain functions of a therapist, but some people may still insist on a human.

So no, I don’t think the AI wave will be the same as the internet wave, or any other technology wave. Governments need to urgently come up with implementation plans for Universal Basic Income. The disruptions will be severe and failure to prepare will likely lead to chaos.

If you don’t want to rely on rapid action by your government and want to take action today, take a look at my book The Minimum You Need To Do Before AI Changes Your Life. It’s a checklist of how you can prepare for AI disruptions, covering not only income, but also security, education, and other subjects.