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Nasdaq Falls 5%, Blue Origin Delays Launch, Americans Love Harleys

Happy Thursday.

We’re live on YouTube and 𝕏.

The current thing in tech and business is the Nasdaq dropping 5%, wiping out all of yesterday’s post-midterm gains.

Run of Show

Nasdaq Falls 5%, Blue Origin Delays Launch, Americans Love Harleys

Nasdaq Falls 5%

Despite the big rally yesterday, the markets are getting crushed today. The Nasdaq is down about 5%. The S&P 500 is down over 3%, erasing over $2T. Nvidia is down 9%, AMD and Micron are down 15%, CoreWeave is down 12%, and Sandisk is down 20%. Brutal. The timeline is piling on as well.

Citrini’s Jukan just got back from a trip to Shanghai and his takeaway lines up pretty closely with what we’re seeing in the market today. He says sentiment among Greater China investors was much worse than he expected, with a lot of people already convinced the AI trade is over and questioning whether all of the data center spending planned for 2027/28 will actually happen.

The bigger question he kept hearing was what comes after AI coding? (Jordi brought this up the other day in our interview with Joe Weisenthal)

Investors understand the current revenue story for OpenAI and Anthropic, but they’re struggling to see what the next huge source of ARR is going to be. Things like AI for science and AI chip design are in the conversation but the concern is that they either take years to monetize or don’t have an obvious business model yet.

We’ll be discussing it on the show today.

Blue Origin Delays Launches Until 2027

Blue Origin is pushing the New Glenn rocket’s return to flight to January 2027 as it continues rebuilding its Cape Canaveral launch pad after the rocket exploded during a hot-fire test in May.

The company had been targeting a return by the end of this year, but CEO Dave Limp says reconstruction took longer than expected, partly because of bad weather over the summer. The delay is relatively small though, just about 10 days later than Blue Origin’s previous target, according to the Financial Times.

Americans Love Harley Davidson

Americans love Harley Davidson. Consumers in the U.S. are cutting back on expensive leisure spending on things like boats and RVs, but Harley sales are actually growing. North American retail sales have been up year over year for four straight quarters, global sales are up 4% so far this year, and the stock is up nearly 60% year to date.

The Wall Street Journal highlighted one Harley buyer whose story sums up the brand’s love with American consumers right now:

Carl Sprinkle went into a Harley store to buy new foot pegs for his 16-year-old motorcycle.But then he saw it: a limited edition, three-wheeled Street Glide with a trio of ghostly eagles adorning its obsidian paint job.

Sprinkle took it home after selling his camper and trading in another Harley.

“I spent an hour there arguing with myself, dropped a deposit and tried to figure out how to buy it,” said Sprinkle, a 68-year-old retired union pipe fitter who lives in Indiana. “There was no way I wasn’t going to have that motorcycle.”

WSJ: OpenAI Had ‘Rough’ First Half of Year Before Coding Takeoff, Brockman Says

Clip Spotlight: Trial attorney Alex Spiro has represented Elon, Jay-Z, MrBeast, and Kim Kardashian. We asked if AI is turning his clients into armchair lawyers.

He says trusting yourself over an expert is a human problem Socrates identified 2,400 years ago:

"I represent almost exclusively clients that think that they know more about the law. It is my specialty."

"I think that the old adage at Goldman Sachs was you shouldn't be picking your own stocks. Well, you shouldn't be picking your own legal arguments and picking your own medical procedures."

"Since the time of Socrates, we have learned that we are not great advocates for ourselves, that we ought to rely on somebody that has some emotional independence from us, that can use judgment, that can make the arguments the way they ought to be made, because we can be myopic."

"You shouldn't be picking your own legal arguments and picking your own medical procedures."

"I have said to many, many clients... if they want to represent themselves, I'll just sit here and watch. They can give the opening argument. That usually shuts them up pretty quickly."