Shopify 3Q’26: Closing In on Half of Amazon

In 1Q'17, Shopify's Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) was ~10% of Amazon's estimated retail GMV. It took them seven years to reach ~30%. After growing GMV 30% (FXN) in 3Q'26, their sixth consecutive quarter of 29-30% FXN growth, Shopify is now at ~46% and looks likely to cross 50% around the middle of next year. If it does, going from 30% to 50% will have taken only about three years.

In fact, even though it may sound a bit provocative, Shopify and Amazon retail may actually have similar GMV in just ~6-7 years. It is remarkable that this is no longer an absurd thing to write.

On an incremental basis, Shopify added ~$27 Billion of GMV YoY in 3Q’26 whereas Amazon retail likely added ~$17 Billion, or ~158% of what Amazon added which is the highest reading since I started tracking this, but we need to normalize this for Prime Day change. Prime Day moved into 2Q this year for most of Amazon’s large countries whereas it was entirely in 3Q last year, and Amazon’s CFO said the shift cost ~400 bps of its overall 3Q growth. In hindsight, much of the moderation to ~80% that I noted in the 2Q’26 update was this timing shift, and 158% is flattered by the same shift in reverse. Putting the two quarters together is a better read.

So a company less than half the size of Amazon retail added slightly more GMV dollars than Amazon did over the last six and twelve months.

During the call, Shopify’s CFO reminded the outsized incremental share gains of Shopify. From the call (emphasis mine):

“Over the last three years, our U.S. merchants’ online sales grew at a compound annual growth rate of 23%, compared to 8% for U.S. e-commerce overall. In Europe, we saw a similar pattern. Our merchants grew online GMV at a compound annual growth rate of 37%, compared to a market growth of 8%, doubling their share of e-commerce in just three years. These trends have accelerated. Three years ago, Shopify merchants drove nearly a fifth of incremental e-commerce sales in the U.S. and nearly a quarter in Europe. Since the start of 2025, they now capture nearly half in the U.S. and more than 40% in Europe.”

Indeed, GMV grew 33% FXN in Europe vs 28% in North America. It’s also not just e-commerce, Shopify’s offline GMV also grew 30%. Moreover, B2B GMV grew 74%, continuing a gradual deceleration from 84%, 80%, and 76% over the prior three quarters as the base scales.

I will discuss the quarter and some key takeaways from the call, along with some thoughts on the valuation, behind the paywall.

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