Confidence isn’t about having more, it’s about calibrating the right amount

Joe Burrow is once again among the NFL’s elite quarterbacks. Through five weeks of the 2026 season, he ranks fourth in touchdown passes, sixth in passing yards, and leads the league in completion percentage at over 70%.

Yet, what sets him apart isn’t physical. It’s mental. Burrow has a nearly perfect level of confidence, which has been calibrated over time.

Calibrated?

Yes, calibrated.

Let me explain.

When Burrow was just nine years old, his AAU basketball team was trailing by eight points with thirty seconds left. His coach thought the game was over.

Burrow didn’t.

He scored nine straight points, including several consecutive free throws, and somehow won the game.

Afterward, Burrow’s coach, a sociology professor at Ohio University, pulled his parents aside and told them their son possessed an unusual quality. His blood pressure, he said, appeared to be the same whether he was shooting a basketball, cutting the lawn, or pulling someone out of a burning building. He was unfazed, regardless of the task.

Then the coach paused before telling them he was thankful their son was using his talents for good. Otherwise, he could be the next Dexter, the fictional serial killer.

Thankfully for Burrow, his parents, and Cincinnati Bengals and LSU Tigers fans alike, that confidence was channeled in the right direction. Over the past decade he has won a national championship and a Heisman Trophy, earned multiple trips to the NFL Pro Bowl, and came within minutes of winning the Super Bowl in 2022.

The older I get, the more I appreciate how much confidence matters. In fact, I am now convinced it might be the most significant differentiator in many walks of life.

But here’s the critical nuance: it’s not about having “a lot” or “a little”.

It’s about calibrating whatever amount of confidence you have.

For some people, confidence needs to be unlocked. For others, it needs to be reined in. And for people like Joe Burrow, the challenge is channeling it in the right direction.

Too little confidence can prevent someone from taking risks, facing challenges, or even engaging at all. Meanwhile, too much can morph into arrogance. Taken too far, it convinces someone that the rules, the odds, or even reality itself doesn’t apply to them.

The key is finding the right balance.

I witness this every day with my two sons.

My younger son, who is about to turn eight, thinks he can rule the world. There is absolutely no reason for him to possess this much confidence. He hasn’t earned it. He hasn’t justified it. He just has it. And, in many ways, it’s wonderful. Very few things scare him. He’s adventurous. He jumps into nearly everything he does with reckless abandon.

This extreme level of confidence might be his greatest strength. Yet, it has the potential to become a material weakness if he doesn’t learn to keep it in check.

My older son has confidence too, but his is more like a flame that needs oxygen. It often requires encouragement before it begins to grow. Yet when it does, you can see it. He consistently surprises me with what he is willing and capable of doing.

Neither is better.

They’re just different and in need of different levels of calibration.

But how is someone supposed to find the right level?

First, calibrating confidence starts with the people who surround you or you surround yourself with. To this point, while Burrow’s coach may have sounded like he was complimenting his star player, I actually think he was directing his comments at his parents.

Burrow’s confidence was the easy part. He simply had it. The challenge was channeling it into productive use, which, as Michael Moritz of Sequoia Capital said on The Outsider podcast, is the essence of parenting.

That said, we obviously can only control this to a point. Our parents are ours whether we like it or not. The same is often true of our teachers, coaches, and bosses.

However, what we can do is identify those who bring out the best in us, determine what makes them unique, and seek out more people like them.

Personally, I’ve had countless teachers, coaches, and bosses. Unsurprisingly, I had a lot of good, or even very good ones, but only a few were truly great.

So, what made them different?

For one, they didn’t treat everyone with a broad brush. Knowing that people are wired differently, they took the time to figure out what made people tick and adjusted accordingly.

In many ways, it’s the same lesson I’m learning from my sons. One needs to be encouraged to take more risks. The other occasionally needs to be reminded that he isn’t invincible. Treating them the same way wouldn’t necessarily bring out the best in either of them.

The best teachers, coaches, bosses, and parents understand this. In doing so, they become what are often called force multipliers.

Latch on to these people. Study them. Work for them. Hire them.

Second, confidence is calibrated by pursuing hard things and experiencing difficult moments. Even Joe Burrow needed this.

Burrow arrived at Ohio State as a highly recruited quarterback with every expectation of becoming the starter. Instead, he spent three years as a backup, largely watching games from the sideline. In doing so, it humbled him and he said as much after being drafted by the Bengals, admitting that his confidence was really shaken as a result of his experience in Columbus and that he didn’t know if he had what it takes. Ironically, his two teammates who started over him — J.T. Barrett and Dwayne Haskins — had little-to-no success in the NFL.

Yet Burrow didn’t transfer when things got difficult. He stuck it out, graduated, and then looked for a fresh start. And when he did, he didn’t seek out a lesser program where starting might be easier. He chose LSU.

Two years later, he produced one of the greatest seasons in college football history, winning the national championship and Heisman Trophy.

Which brings me to something former Navy SEAL commander William McRaven said he looked for in a SEAL. Intelligence mattered, but what really mattered was whether someone could keep thinking when cold, wet, exhausted, and surrounded by adversity.

In McRaven’s words, he wanted someone with “just enough swagger, but also just enough humility.” This is the best description I have heard for calibrated confidence.

Enough swagger to believe you can figure things out, yet also enough humility to recognize that you don’t have all the answers.

Enough confidence to take a risk. Enough humility to know you might be wrong.

Enough confidence to lead. Enough humility to listen.

And maybe that’s why I keep coming back to Joe Burrow.

For all his confidence, Burrow seems to have a good sense of where this thin line resides.

When a reporter once compared him to Tom Brady, Burrow quickly shut it down, saying: “Please don’t compare me to the best player of all time. Let me do my own thing.”

He wasn’t shrinking from the comparison. He wasn’t embracing it either. He was simply confident in what he could become without pretending he had already become it.

That’s a hard balance to strike.

Confidence isn’t about having more.

It’s about having the right amount.

That’s calibration.