Quebec Separatist Government to Pick Marceau as Finance Minister

The newly elected separatist government in Quebec will appoint economist Nicolas Marceau as its finance minister, according to local media reports.

Marceau held that position the last time the Parti Québécois was in power, between September 2012 and April 2014, making him one of the few PQ lawmakers with government experience.

“I cannot imagine standing on the sidelines as this historic moment unfolds before us, which could lead to the birth of the country of Quebec,” he declared as he announced his candidacy in August.

The PQ, led by former lawyer Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, formed a minority government on Oct. 5 with the lowest-ever popular support in the French-speaking province. Only 28% of voters cast their ballots for the separatist party, but the electoral system still allowed it to win 59 of the 127 seats — five short of a majority.

St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to hold a referendum on breaking away from Canada once US President Donald Trump’s second term ends in January 2029, which would prevent his unpredictable tactics from distracting the debate over Quebec’s future. The PQ, founded in 1968, views independence as the only way to protect language and other markers of Quebec’s culture while eliminating costly overlaps between the federal and provincial governments.

A poll conducted by Leger Marketing for Quebecor Inc.’s media outlets showed St-Pierre Plamondon could have won at least 35% of the votes — and a majority — if he’d pledged not to hold a referendum.

Governing will be complex for the new administration. Its minority means it will need the support of one of the three opposition parties to pass laws. And the province of nine million people, which represents about 20% of Canada’s economy and is a major exporter of aluminum, aerospace and hydroelectricity, is also disproportionately affected by the US-Canada trade war.

Read More: An Ex-Lawyer Seeks to Defy Polls by Taking Quebec Out of Canada

The previous government, led by the nationalist Coalition Avenir Québec, left little financial leeway. The PQ foresees a C$6.5 billion ($4.6 billion) deficit for the fiscal year ending March 31, and will need to find more than C$1.8 billion in savings to balance the budget in two years, according to the party’s four-year fiscal plan.

The strategy forecasts annual expenditure growth of only 1.9% on average — below inflation — and would lay off thousands of civil servants representing 2.5% of the government’s payroll. The PQ also promised a gradual reduction in the corporate income tax rate to 9.5% from 11.5%, offset entirely by a reduction in financial support and grants for businesses, but it’s unclear how that will be achieved.

Canada Prime Minister Minister Mark Carney also expanded a major investment tax write-off in September, and provinces typically match federal deductions. Quebec estimates that will mean forgoing about C$1 billion per year in revenue, which isn’t accounted for in the PQ’s fiscal plan.

In his first 100 days, St-Pierre Plamondon said he would unlock funds to address homelessness, eliminate taxes on used goods and lower a gas tax. An economic update is expected in November.

The PQ lost power in 2014, but Marceau was reelected in his riding and remained in the opposition until 2018. He then returned to work as an economics university professor.

Marceau submitted two budgets during his tenure as finance minister. The deficit, after contributions to a fund dedicated to debt repayments, reached C$1.6 billion in fiscal year 2012-13, during which the PQ was elected. It rose to C$2.8 billion in 2013-14, and the government fell just after that fiscal year ended.

In this term, Marceau succeeds Eric Girard, National Bank of Canada’s former treasurer who had held the finance minister post since 2018. Girard — along with all other CAQ candidates — lost his seat on Oct. 5.