Alberta’s Vote to Stay in Canada Hands Carney a Clear Win

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There was no big surprise in Alberta’s separation referendum on Monday night, in which the “remain” side won handily with about 75% of support. That was in line with reams of public polling evidence leading into the vote.

Still, it’s dangerous to be complacent about polls — especially when you lead a country that separatists are trying to break up.

Prime Minister Mark Carney wasn’t taking anything for granted, and warned Alberta voters months ago against taking a “dangerous bluff” in the cause of growing their province’s influence within Canada’s federation. He cited his experience as Bank of England governor during Brexit, when, in his view, too many people viewed the separation vote as a “free option” where they could simply strengthen their negotiating hand with the rest of Europe.

It wasn’t just talk from the prime minister. He also took political risk in trying to show his government would be a strong supporter of Alberta’s energy sector. Carney rolled back numerous environmental regulations that had been put in place by his own Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau, and committed to building a large pipeline to connect Alberta’s oil sands to a new terminal on the Pacific Ocean.

The work paid off in a resounding victory for the federalists. “It’s a great day for Canada,” Carney told reporters ahead of a cabinet meeting in Ottawa.

His relief also reflects the fact he can turn more fully to foreign affairs, where big moves are afoot. Next week Carney will host European Union leaders in Montreal, where the two sides are discussing a new alliance. The week after will see the crucial US midterm elections, which could pave the way for renewed trade talks. And after that Carney is expected to attend multiple summits in Asia, where he’s pushing to grow new export markets for Canada.

In the middle of that he also has a federal budget to publish.

There are still lingering issues with Alberta that Carney will likely have to address, particularly when it comes to immigration policy — an issue over which Alberta Premier Danielle Smith wants more control. In eastern Canada, meanwhile, there’s a newly elected separatist government in Quebec that intends to one day hold its own referendum.

But at least for now, Carney can exhale.

Also in this newsletter: The Carney government spends its oil windfall. RBC mulls blocking Muse. And Sherritt gets a key US license for its Cuban nickel operations.

The following was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Top stories

The Carney government will unveil its budget on Nov. 5. The date announcement came hours after Canada’s parliamentary budget officer issued a more cautious fiscal and economic outlook. The PBO report said that federal fiscal room has increased by C$37.4 billion ($26.6 billion) over the 2026-27 to 2030-31 period compared with the spring budget update. But new policy measures announced since that update, including a major tax incentive for businesses to invest, will cost the government more than it’s receiving from an oil-driven revenue windfall, it said.

Royal Bank of Canada is considering blocking Muse, Meta’s popular artificial intelligence agent, from accessing the bank’s customer information. “It’s something I’m thinking about, absolutely,” Chief Executive Officer Dave McKay said in a Bloomberg Television interview, adding that the bank hasn’t made a final decision. JPMorgan Chase and Charles Schwab have said they are blocking or limiting outside AI agents’ access to client data.

Canaccord Genuity Group is in talks to sell its UK wealth management business to a consortium led by private equity firm Centerbridge Partners, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The potential investor group also includes Middle Eastern sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment, the people said, adding any deal could value the Canaccord Wealth UK unit at around £1 billion ($1.3 billion).Walmart raised $6.56 billion from the sale of US and Canadian dollar bonds as the world’s largest retailer seeks to diversify its funding sources amid a spending spree. The company issued C$5 billion of debt in its debut offering of Canadian notes, according to a person familiar with the matter. It also priced $3 billion of US dollar bonds for general corporate purposes that may include debt repayment, said a separate person.

The Trump administration is being sued over the president’s imposition of 50% tariffs on an array of Canadian goods. The lawsuit, filed on Tuesday, comes amid an ongoing trade war between the US and one of its largest trading partners. The food import business that sued argues President Donald Trump lacked authority to invoke a never-before-used section of US law to order the levies against Canada and that this is part of a broader trend of illegal taxing actions by the administration.

Markets and commodities

Sherritt International said it received a rare US government license allowing it to ship supplies to its Cuban nickel operations, a crucial step toward restarting production and securing a financial rescue. The authorization permits the purchase and delivery of fuel, fuel oil and sulfur to the struggling Canadian miner’s Moa nickel operation, the company said.

The Trump administration announced $8 billion in aid for farmers to help offset rising fuel costs, a major burden for growers during the harvest. The move is the administration’s latest attempt to ease financial burdens on growers — traditionally a strong Republican voting base — ahead of midterm elections. The White House earlier this month also eased limits restricting the use of a tax-exempt variety of diesel.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.5%, with BlackBerry surging 7.9% after its QNX operating system division reported a record royalty backlog. The Canadian dollar leapt to its highest level in almost a month.

Before you go...

Less than a decade ago, Bayan Sadagah wouldn’t have been able to sit in the stands at a football match in Saudi Arabia. Yet today, Sadagah wears the colors of one of Saudi’s biggest clubs, Al-Ittihad in Jeddah. The 31-year-old is a leading figure in the Saudi Women’s Premier League, started in 2022 as part of a wider push to develop the women’s game in the country. Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 program, Saudi Arabia is aiming to diversify its economy and society. Sports make up a central part of that effort.

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