How do you analyze the relative "strength" of probes? [R]

This question is related to topics like language+ models (including multimodal) and things like "circuit" analyses. I think something related might come up in my work (factuality guarantees for model outputs) and I'm trying to orient to the SoTA. I found this old post on trying to deduce, for instance, whether a Transformer-based model "knows" which word a token is in. Even in this simple example, I noticed some meaningful problems (I detail in a footnote 1 to not derail my question) - and I've heard that c