Tesla-SpaceX Deal News Possible This Year, Barclays Analyst Says

A merger between Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc. and SpaceX could be announced ahead of the electric-vehicle maker’s annual general meeting, according to analysts at Barclays.

Analysts led by Dan Levy expect the 2026 meeting to be held on Dec. 6 at the latest. They add that while there would be some financial synergies resulting from such a combination, the true value would be in vertical integration of the two companies’ artificial intelligence technologies.

“The possibility of a Tesla/SpaceX merger has increasingly become the consensus expectation,” the analysts wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. “While it’s possible that the timing of a TSLA/SPCX merger announcement could slip later into October or perhaps even until early November, we believe such timing may increasingly challenge merger approval as part of the AGM,” they added.

A combination of the two Musk ventures has been widely expected among investors and analysts, especially after SpaceX completed a record initial public offering this year. Bloomberg News reported in January that SpaceX had weighed a Tesla merger before ultimately deciding to acquire xAI, Musk’s artificial intelligence startup.

Tesla shares were little changed in postmarket trading as of 5 p.m. in New York, while SpaceX shares slipped 0.4%.

SpaceX and Tesla already have a number of business ties and overlapping investor bases, as well as Musk as the chief executive officer. The rocket maker has purchased more than $100 million worth of Tesla Cybertrucks, while xAI is a major customer of Tesla’s utility-scale batteries.

The companies are also partnering on a chipmaking project called Terafab, which will produce semiconductors for Tesla’s EVs, robotaxis and Optimus robots, as well as a chip specifically for SpaceX’s orbital AI satellites.

Musk has talked recently about the various ways that his two largest companies interact and converge, including on a recent earnings call when he said Tesla overlaps “on so many fronts with SpaceX.”

Barclays says the main hurdle for any deal would be the shareholder votes, as both Tesla and SpaceX shareholders would likely have to approve the combination.

“Roughly 11% of total outstanding votes in Tesla’s 2025 AGM voting were ‘Broker non-votes,’ which are effectively counted as ‘Against’ votes, and we suspect Tesla will attempt to increase shareholder participation in a potential SpaceX combination vote,” the analysts wrote.