Bolsonaro Holds Narrow Lead Over Lula Ahead of Brazil Runoff

Leia em português

Right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro holds a slim lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva less than two weeks before Brazil’s runoff election, a new poll showed.

Bolsonaro would receive 51% of valid votes, excluding blank and invalid ballots, to Lula’s 49%, according to a Quaest poll conducted for O Globo newspaper published Wednesday. The lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus-or-minus 2 percentage points.

Brazilians will go to the polls on Oct. 25 to select the nation’s next leader. Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of the leftist Lula by roughly 2 points in the first round vote on Oct. 4.

Brazilian assets surged on the surprise first round result, as many investors consider Bolsonaro more likely to pursue spending cuts to address the country’s deteriorating fiscal situation.

Lula is now seeking a boost from Brazil’s Senate, which is scheduled to vote Wednesday on his proposal to shorten the country’s workweek. The 80-year-old leader made the proposal a campaign centerpiece and is banking on its passage as he seeks to make up ground in the race.

Quaest surveyed 2,154 voters from Oct. 10-13. The poll has a confidence level of 95% and is registered with Brazil’s electoral court at BR-08729/2026.

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