US CPI to Show Overall Inflation Boosted by Higher Gasoline Prices

Higher gasoline prices probably led to quicker overall US inflation in September even as underlying price pressures moderated, supporting views that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates this month.

The closely-watched consumer price index is seen rising 0.6% after a 0.4% increase a month earlier, based on the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists ahead of Wednesday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release. That would mark the largest advance in five months.

Excluding fuel and food, the so-called core measure probably rose 0.2%, a step down from August. Compared with a year earlier the core CPI is seen rising 2.5%, a touch firmer than the prior month when the annual increase was the smallest since 2021.

Following slower September payrolls growth, cooler underlying inflation reduces the urgency for the Fed to raise rates on Oct. 28 after hiking in September for the first in three years. The CPI data may also illustrate that so far, the rise in energy costs isn’t being passed on in the form of higher prices for most other consumer goods and services.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Our takeaway is that acceleration in inflation is mostly a story of localized hot spots, not broad-based price pressures. That’s an important difference from the 2022 hiking cycle, and gives the Fed room to remain patient.”—Anna Wong, Eliza Winger and Andrew Sacher. For full analysis, click here

Retail gasoline prices approached $4.50 a gallon in late September, the highest in four months. With jet fuel costs also picking up due to the Middle East conflict, the report may also show that airfares accelerated. On Friday, President Donald Trump announced a deal to import Russian diesel in a bid to tame soaring fuel prices.

Read more: US Consumer Sentiment Falls to Five-Month Low in October

Concerns about affordability and high prices have taken a toll on consumer confidence. While households so far have continued to spend, a key driver of the economy over the past six months, pessimism is growing.

Government figures out Thursday are projected to show retail sales growth cooled in September. Receipts at retailers probably rose modestly after increasing in August by the most in nearly two years.

The busy week for US economic data will also include the September producer price index and the Fed’s industrial production report. Figures due Tuesday from the National Association of Realtors will probably show sluggish sales of previously owned homes last month.

On Wednesday, the Fed releases its Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions across the US.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the US

Further north, a handful of releases are expected to paint a slightly dimmer picture of Canada’s third quarter than Statistics Canada’s projected 0.2% rebound in August suggests. Economists anticipate wholesale trade, excluding petroleum, fell 1.5% in August. Manufacturing sales are expected to have risen 1.1% that month, which suggests little change in volumes once price increases are taken into account.

Meanwhile, Stelco, the Canadian division of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., has until Tuesday to respond to the government’s demand that it keep steelworkers in their jobs. Employees began receiving layoff notices after the company announced plans to indefinitely shutter some of its Ontario operations, despite promises to keep workers employed in exchange for past federal funding.

Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings in Bangkok are likely to draw the most attention, with global finance chiefs and central bankers — including Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem — all set to speak. Data such as Chinese inflation and Monday’s announcement of the Nobel Prize for Economics will also be in focus.

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

Asia

A highlight in Asia will be inflation gauges from China on Wednesday. Consumer price gains are forecast to pick up to 1% in September, still anemic enough that to keep pressure on the People’s Bank of China to ease policy settings further.

China’s factory-gate prices are forecast to rise 4.3% on elevated costs for energy and electronic products. India also releases CPI in the coming week, with gains seen picking up to 5.5%.

Australia releases the NAB business confidence index for September on Tuesday after the gauge stayed in negative territory for seven months through August. Australian labor figures for September may show relative strength, in data expected to keep the central bank on track for another hike in the first half of 2027.

Producer prices in Japan on Tuesday will reflect supply-chain pressures arising from elevated costs for labor, energy and packaging. The figures may point to more price hikes down the line, spurring consumer inflation and keeping the Bank of Japan on track for another rate increase by year-end.

New Zealand releases its manufacturing PMI on Friday, with the gauge having stayed expansionary for 14 months through August. The Philippines publishes overseas cash remittances figures for August on Thursday, and Malaysia’s third-quarter advance GDP data on Friday are expected to show that economic growth stayed robust.

Singapore’s third-quarter GDP report is forecast to signal a slight slowdown year on year. Trade data are due during the week from China and India.

There are no rate decisions this week, but BOJ board member Junko Koeda speaks on Thursday. The central bank’s next rate decision is Oct. 30, and pricing in the overnight swaps market shows traders expect the BOJ to to wait until December or January for the next rate increase.

Australia’s Reserve Bank releases minutes Tuesday from its September meeting, when it raised borrowing costs by a quarter point.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia

Europe, Middle East, Africa

ECB speakers are out in force in Bangkok, although two appearances by President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday are likely to garner the most attention.

Beyond her assessment of current bond market turbulence and the rate path, any comments on her personal future will be in focus. After repeated hints, she recently acknowledged the possibility of quitting “a few months” before her stint concludes next October.

Lagarde’s potential early exit, and who may succeed her, might also come up when European Union leaders meet in Brussels starting on Thursday, although their talks will center on energy costs, the bloc’s next long-term budget, and China.

A week light on data will feature final inflation readings across the region and euro-area industrial production on Thursday.

Meanwhile, one of the common currency’s potential future members will draw attention when Hungary unveils its draft budget for next year. Prime Minister Peter Magyar has pledged to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of output by 2030 to meet euro criteria, from an estimated 7.5% shortfall this year.

In the UK, monthly GDP numbers for August are expected to show a contraction following strong numbers in June and July.

About half of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, including Governor Andrew Bailey, will be in Bangkok.

Further south, Israel’s headline inflation rate for September is set to rise from the prior 1.5% while staying in the central bank’s target range of 1-3%. The Bank of Israel cut rates in September, citing data that was below the midpoint of the range. The next rate decision is on Oct. 21, before the country holds elections.

Price growth in Nigeria is expected to edge higher because of unfavorable food inflation base effects, according to Bloomberg Economics. The annual rate could tick up to 15.6% from 15.4%. Inflation has been little changed in recent months, prompting the central bank to last month cut borrowing costs by the biggest margin in almost two decades.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA

Latin America

In Brazil, the shock first-round election showing by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro that has made him the front-runner over incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, along with the rightward drift in congress ahead of the Oct. 25 run-off, will cast a long shadow over a light economic agenda.

Brazilian assets rallied and investors boosted bets on lower rates based on the results. Some of that optimism may also show up in the central bank’s market readout, to be posted on Monday.

Analysts may buy into the narrative that a change in government boosts the odds of getting Brazil’s finances in order, and as a result, mark down forecasts for Brazil’s key rate and possibly inflation as well. That said, the challenger has yet to offer up much detail on his economic plans.

Chile’s lone release for the week will be the central bank’s survey of economists, while Mexico is slightly more active, with August industrial production and manufacturing data on the agenda.

In Argentina, both budget and consumer price readings for September are on tap. Monthly inflation slowed to a 14-month low of 1.7% in August, and analysts surveyed by the central bank expect sub-2% readings for September through March, which would see the annual rate come in at the lowest since 2017.

Colombia reports August data on industrial production and manufacturing, both of which likely extended July’s grind lower as slack domestic demand and faltering mining output take a toll, while retail sales are seen cooling for a second month.

Rounding out the week, Brazil’s GDP-proxy and retail sales figures for August may show some bump up, but must be viewed against the backdrop of what’s forecast to be a second year of weaker growth and the lowest print since the 2020 pandemic slump.

Economists surveyed by Banco Central do Brasil have lowered their 2026 GDP estimate to 1.85% and their 2027 output call to 1.4%, extending the slowdown to a third and fourth year before what they see as a very modest upswing in 2028.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America