‘A Drop in the Bucket:’ Why Trump’s Diesel Deal With Putin Won’t Move the Needle on Prices

An oil terminal in Saint Petersburg. Trump said he reached a deal with Russia to supply the U.S. with diesel. (Olga Maltseva / AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• President Trump temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian diesel imports to allow some to enter the U.S. market.
• The deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to have much of an immediate effect on retail diesel prices.
• Analysts and data indicate the announced import amounts of Russian diesel are too small to significantly impact U.S. supplies.

Soaring diesel prices have become such a problem that the Trump administration has moved to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel imports to allow some to enter the U.S. market.

But President Donald Trump’s announcement that he struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to shore up U.S. supplies is unlikely to have much of an immediate effect on retail diesel prices—at least not yet. Diesel futures, as measured by heating oil , fell 1.4% after the announcement to $4.66 a gallon. The price of retail diesel was $6.28 a gallon Friday, up more than 70% from a year ago, according to AAA.

The problem: The import amounts Trump announced just aren’t enough. The initial 300,000 tons that Trump said Russia will supply immediately to the U.S. and global markets works out to about 2 million barrels. By comparison, the U.S. currently exports 1.5 million barrels a day of diesel, according to Energy Department data.

After that first shipment, Trump says Russia will release another 500,000 tons, or around 3.7 million barrels, during the month of November. That works out to around 123,000 barrels a day, or less than 10% of U.S. daily exports.

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“It’s a drop in the bucket,” said Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy.

Trump went on to say that Russia will deliver 1 million tons “immediately after” and another 3 million tons “within a short period.”

That isn’t a specific timeline and leaves a lot of open questions.

The move also complicates relations with Ukraine, which the administration has supported in its conflict with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the deal, saying, “Any easing of sanctions against Russia without a clear and lasting de-escalation agreement with Russia is an obvious weakness. It plays into Russia’s hands.” Ukraine has been in a war with Russian since 2022 and has struck Russian oil refineries.

Write to Anita Hamilton at anita.hamilton@barrons.com

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