Preview|TSM 26Q3: Revenue Growth Depends on the Pace of Capacity Expansion

26Q4 Revenue Growth Forecast at 11% QoQ

TSMC reported 26Q3 revenue of NT$1,494b, up 17.6% QoQ (+16.2% in USD terms) and about 2% above the high end of guidance. We estimate 26Q3 gross margin at 67.6%. With N3 capacity fully utilized and end products using N2 entering volume production, we project 26Q4 NT-dollar revenue growth of 11% QoQ (+11.7% in USD terms). AI GPUs continue to support wafer demand in 2H. The shift toward Agentic AI in edge and cloud inference is also prompting CSPs to increase wafer starts for high-core-count server CPUs and proprietary ASICs, keeping overall 3nm capacity utilization consistently above 100%. For TSMC and its customers, demand remains strong, with insufficient capacity the main constraint.

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