Charting the Global Economy: US Employment Growth Moderates

The US economy added fewer workers than projected in September and wage growth disappointed, suggesting high costs are keeping employers cautious.

Price pressures, including higher costs for energy, have mounted across the globe. In the euro area, inflation accelerated to the quickest in three years. Beyond petroleum products, war and weather have driven world food prices to the highest since 2022.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics:

US

The US added 29,000 jobs in September, fewer than expected, and wage growth slowed, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Robust consumer spending and vigorous business investment have supported hiring, but many cost-conscious employers have taken a measured approach to expanding headcount. That’s led to uneven hiring from month to month.

Heading into the November midterm elections, frustration over affordability issues has largely focused on rising fuel, food and housing costs. But for millions of Americans, those expenses are piling on top of another threat to their household budgets: surging student loan bills.

US manufacturing activity expanded at a slightly slower pace in September as factories balanced robust demand with resurgent costs and shipping delays. Factory activity has been in expansionary territory — or over 50 — for nine consecutive months, the longest stretch since 2022.

Europe

Euro-area inflation quickened more than expected to the highest in three years, bolstering expectations that the European Central Bank will lift interest rates further. Core inflation — excluding volatile items like energy, which has driven the latest bout of price pressure — rose to 2.5%.

A selloff in global debt has fueled a rout that’s hitting harder and faster in France than anyone expected. Nerves are fraying about missed deficit targets, policy gridlock and presidential elections next year that could radically alter the country’s direction.

Russia is preparing for the war in Ukraine to continue for years by planning record war spending, abandoning plans to rein in military outlays. Projected military expenditures next year of 17.1 trillion rubles ($205 billion) would amount to an annual increase of more than 40% compared to this year’s planned defense outlays — actual totals remain classified — and a nearly 380% rise from the year before the war began.

Asia

China’s industrial enterprises saw their earnings grow at the weakest since they fell last November, highlighting the limits of a recovery disproportionately driven by elevated oil costs and sectors linked to artificial intelligence. Industrial profits rose just 4.2% from a year earlier after an increase of 11.2% in July.

Indian oil refiners are hiring tankers to sail through the Strait of Hormuz to pick up crude from within the Persian Gulf, a change of tactics to help them cut costs and secure their supply chains. The change in strategy comes after a recovery in flows through Hormuz in recent months, and the restoration of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. Shipments of crude oil from the Middle East are now at 98% of pre-war levels, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a note.

Emerging Markets

Colombia unexpectedly raised interest rates to the highest level since 2024 as the central bank seeks to restore credibility after years of missing its inflation target. Annual inflation accelerated to 6.24% and is forecast to remain above the upper end of the central bank’s target range this year and next.

Gabon’s dollar-bonds are the worst performers in emerging markets this week after the government held a series of investor calls on plans to sell new securities, raising questions about its disclosure of debt levels and sending yields soaring.

World

Global food prices extended gains in September, reaching the highest since November 2022 as mounting geopolitical and weather disruptions roil the farm sector. A combination of extreme weather, trade disruptions and input price spikes has battered farmers this year. That’s creating uncertainty as critical harvesting and planting periods commence for many crops.

Central banks in Mozambique and Sri Lanka, as well as the Bank of Central African States left interest rates unchanged. Officials in Zambia lowered borrowing costs, while policymakers in Australia, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic raised rates.