Meloni Allies Say Italy’s Lower House Will Back Electoral Law

Giorgia Meloni’s allies are confident that the Italian prime minister will get sufficient backing in the country’s lower house for the final approval of her flagship electoral reform next week.

“I don’t foresee any problems with the bill’s approval,” Deborah Bergamini, a lawmaker with coalition party Forza Italia, said in an interview. “I don’t sense any tension around the vote.”

“It’ll pass,” said Marco Osnato, a lawmaker in Meloni’s party.

Meloni’s coalition was bruised in July when the same chamber rejected a key amendment to the bill in a secret vote, defeating the government by one vote and exposing deepening divisions in her alliance. Italy’s lower house resumed the debate on the bill Wednesday afternoon, ahead of a final vote currently scheduled for Oct. 8.

The premier has told her camp that if the government is defeated in the votes associated to the bill she will resign, Bloomberg News reported in early September. Meloni has since publicly said she would make it a vote of confidence, potentially paving the way for the dissolution of parliament. Other lawmakers cautioned that the final outcome remains open.

If approved, the reform would introduce a purely proportional voting system, abolish first-past-the-post constituencies and award a large seat bonus to any coalition winning more than 42% of the vote.

Meloni’s right flank is increasingly exposed to the ultra-nationalist Roberto Vannacci, the former army general who leads National Future and threatens to peel away votes from her coalition. More broadly, the premier has been under pressure since March, when she lost a referendum on judiciary overhaul that quickly transformed into a plebiscite on her tenure amid stagnating living standards and spiraling energy prices.

Meloni proposed the law before Vannacci’s rise in the polls, which most recently placed him at about 8% of voting intentions, making him the second-strongest right-wing party nationally. If polling remains unchanged, it is likely she would need Vannacci’s votes to achieve the 42% share of the vote needed to achieve the seat bonus.

Still, her majority was able to hold on to a seat in center-right stronghold in the South earlier this week, winning a by-election with about 52% of the vote. Vannacci’s candidate gained 10.9%.