Preview|MU FY26Q4: Focusing on Earnings Sustainability; A Higher, Longer Plateau

Over the past three months, many market participants have been concerned that memory prices would drop rapidly after peaking, following the path seen in past consumer electronics cycles. However, we already expressed our view in our report following our attendance at FMS in early August: we believe memory prices are more likely to settle into a longer plateau after reaching their peak.

We can broadly divide the memory market into two segments: consumer electronics and AI. In the consumer electronics segment, memory price increases are indeed approaching their limit; however, due to persistent supply shortages and limited newly added capacity, we see little chance of a sharp pullback in consumer electronics memory prices.

In AI, while we clearly can no longer expect the QoQ increases seen in 26Q1 and 26Q2, based on our checks, we believe the price increases in 26Q3 and 26Q4 could exceed expectations and may continue to rise in 27Q1.