Micron FQ4 Earnings Preview: The Earnings Have Risen Faster Than the Stock

This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decision.

Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results after the close on September 30.

Micron closed at $1,015.80 on September 18. That is 16.3% below its June 25 closing high of $1,213.56.

The earnings outlook did not weaken during that decline. It improved.

The table shows the gap. Between late June and now, the Street’s fiscal 2027 earnings estimate rose by roughly half, while the share price fell.

A stock gets cheaper in one of two ways. Either the price drops or the earnings estimate rises. Micron has had both at once, which is why it now trades at less than seven times what analysts expect it to earn next year.

Cheap on forward estimates only matters if the estimates hold. That is the whole question going into September 30.

The bar has moved

June was the quarter that changed the model. Revenue came in 15% above what analysts expected and earnings 20% above, and the sequential jump in revenue was the largest in the company’s history. Management then guided the September quarter far above anything Micron had previously reported.

Analysts have since pushed their numbers past that guidance.

Read the right two columns together. Consensus now sits above the midpoint of management's own guidance on revenue, margin and earnings, which means hitting guidance would count as a miss.

Goldman Sachs expects revenue about 3% above consensus and still rates the stock Neutral with a target below the current price. The desk forecasting the biggest beat is not forecasting a higher multiple.

Next quarter's guidance matters more than this quarter's result

The September quarter is already spent. What moves the stock is what management says about the December quarter.

The chart shows what the Street has built in:

Revenue rising in every single quarter from here through the end of fiscal 2027, roughly tripling from where the company started this fiscal year, with earnings per share following the same path.

That leaves a specific hurdle for the December quarter. Consensus needs another double-digit percentage increase on top of a record September. Goldman’s forecast lands in the same place.

If management guides below that, the entire fiscal 2027 staircase in the chart comes down, and the cheap multiple goes with it. If they guide at or above it, June was not the peak.

The estimates are less aggressive than they look

The common objection is that analysts have simply extrapolated June's price surge forever. They have not.