The Prediction Archive

The Prediction Archive is a public database of tens of thousands of world predictions. Using AI it tracks predictions over many decades and marks to market. I was surprised to discover that I am currently the highest ranked individual predictor in the world! Huh, I would not have predicted that.

Ranks are based on the Wilson score so you get credit not just for accurate predictions but for making enough predictions so that uncertainty about accuracy is reduced. Bryan Caplan was more accurate than I was but makes fewer predictions. Tyler made more many predictions than I did and was only somewhat less accurate. What the AI marks as predictions seem sometimes to be more about contemporary events, so take the numbers with a grain of salt. I expect to fall in ranking as the archive expands. Other people the archive covers include Peter Zeihan, Scott Alexander and Warren Buffett.

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