Now Is the Best Time to Get a Deal on a Home if You Live Here

Home buyers have the best shot in late August in places like Portland, Ore., according to one analysis. (Paul Brady / Dreamstime)

Key Points

• A Redfin analysis shows that late August and early September are the best times for home buyers to find deals in several U.S. metro areas.
• Redfin determined optimal windows by measuring each area’s mix of available housing inventory and average discounts.
• Fannie Mae’s latest forecast projects that national home prices will rise 2.3% by the end of this year and 1% by the end of 2027.

Any real estate agent worth their salt will say you can’t time the housing market. But buyers today need all the help they can get.

It’s a topsy-turvy market: the luxury price tier is hot, while first-time buyers are largely stuck wanting for affordable options. Sales are still low, prices are still high, and neither looks likely to budge much anytime soon.

For those looking for a discount, it could pay to strategize. An analysis by real estate brokerage Redfin shows the time is ripe for deals—at least in some U.S. metros.

Buyers have the best shot in late August in locales such as Austin, Portland, Ore., and San Jose, according to Redfin’s analysis of housing market seasonality comparing a home’s original listed price to its sales price. Early September, meanwhile, opens up opportunities in Atlanta, Denver, and Seattle.

Buyers in other metros have a little more time to prep. Broadly, October brings opportunities in the Rust Belt and New England, while buyers in Southern Florida might be better off in December.

The explanation has to do with local housing market seasonality. There are times of the year, often depending on factors such as local weather norms or the school year, when homeowners typically prefer to sell, and a property that has been sitting past prime selling time could be ripe for price cuts.

“Sellers who put their home in the market in the spring or early summer and haven’t offloaded it yet may be open to dropping their price or offering concessions,” Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said in a statement.

Meanwhile, those waiting for sustained price weakness could be waiting awhile. Fannie Mae’s latest housing market forecast, published earlier this month, foresees prices nationally rising 2.3% by the end of this year, and 1% by the end of 2027.

As with all real estate, price trajectories vary depending on where you live. Prices in June rose most quickly in Chicago, New York, and Cleveland, according to S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price indices data released last week. Prices dropped from year-ago levels in seven of the 19 metros for which data was available, with Seattle prices leading the decline.

Write to Shaina Mishkin at shaina.mishkin@dowjones.com

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