‘Better Days’ Are Ahead for UPS Stock, Citi Says

Coming into Thursday trading, UPS stock was up 7% this year and up 20% over the past 12 months. (Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• Citi analyst Ariel Rosa rated UPS stock as Buy with a price target of $132, citing an improving operating environment and cost-cutting efforts.
• UPS CFO Brian Dykes described a “generally constructive operating environment,” according to Rosa.
• Despite the positive outlook, investor skepticism remains after years of falling sales, weaker margins and a stock decline from 2022 to late 2025.

UPS has had a tough go lately. Things are finally turning around.

Citi analyst Ariel Rosa recently hosted UPS management for investor meetings in California. (Wall Street analysts often bring management teams from companies they cover to see institutional investing clients.)

“CFO Brian Dykes described a generally constructive operating environment,” wrote Rosa on Thursday. “Volume and parcel demand that has been moderately better-than-expected given a resilient U.S. consumer and improving business-to-business activity, coupled with a rational pricing environment and UPS’ extensive cost-cutting and efficiency efforts that are beginning to be reflected in margin stabilization.”

He sees “better days” ahead for the stock and rates shares Buy. His price target is $132.

Overall, 44% of analysts covering UPS stock rate shares Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 typically ranges from 55% to 60%. The average analyst price target for UPS shares is about $116.

Rosa also noted that investors have been skeptical given all the challenges of recent years. The skepticism hasn’t dissipated yet. UPS stock was down 0.1% in premarket trading at $105.53, while S&P 500 futures were up 0.4% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were off 0.1%.

Shares traded at roughly $225 in early 2022, as pandemic-weary consumers bought more goods online. UPS generated $100 billion in sales that year, and an operating profit margin of almost 14%. Then came cost inflation, union-negotiated wage increases, tariffs, and UPS’s own decision to walk away from low-profit Amazon.com business.

The result was falling sales and weaker margins. In 2025, UPS generated about $89 billion in sales and an operating profit margin below 10%. The stock suffered mightily. Shares hit $82 in late 2025.

Now, things are looking up. Wall Street projects sales growth and higher operating profit margins in 2027 and 2028. Now, it will take some time for investors to forget about the past and give UPS credit for the future.

Shares trade for about 14 times earnings expected over the next 12 months, down from about 17 times five years ago, when earnings were higher.

Barron’s recently wrote positively about UPS stock, believing that the worst was behind the company. Shares were about $98 at the time.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@barrons.com.

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