Investing - Theory, News & General • Re: How much lower can this go? - TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)

How much lower can this go? - TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)

Is it a good buy at $81 right now?

Why do you think we can predict future interest rates?

Well, it currently has an effective duration of 14.81, so if long rates went back to their 1981 peak of around 15.5%, my back of napkin math says the price would be around $16 per share. Anyone able to take a crack at a more precise calculation?

That would hold if rates spiked to that level instantaneously. But certainly, if rates go up significantly moving forward, TLT will go down in market value by a non-trivial amount.

Statistics: Posted by Northern Flicker — Wed Aug 19, 2026 1:58 am