The NIH Forecast Graveyard, Revisited

I have been tracking NIH’s forecast graveyard in grants.gov since March. In earlier essays, I documented how NIH’s new political approval process, requiring sign-off from NIH’s Office of the Director, HHS, and OMB before any funding opportunity can be published, has left hundreds of planned NOFOs (now called forecasts) stuck in limbo. Some have been formally archived or killed outright (so far, I have documented 55 archived forecasts). Many more simply sit past their promised posting date with no explanation given to the research community waiting for them.

This is an update. As of August 12, 2026, I count 289 NIH forecasts still sitting in the grants.gov queue, neither published nor formally canceled. Of these, 186 are already overdue, some by well over a year. The diverging timeline chart below shows the full spread, from forecasts well over a year past their promised date to one stretching nearly two years into the future. The next chart shows where those overdue forecasts sit by institute, center, or office.

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For forecasts with money set aside for a specific fiscal year, the timing is not just a technicality. The federal fiscal year closes on September 30. Looking only at the overdue forecasts that disclose an estimated funding amount, I found $229 million tied to fiscal years that have already closed or that close within about seven weeks. NIMHD alone accounts for $102 million of that, more than any other institute, spread across just four forecasts. I don’t know whether this specific money will ultimately be reprogrammed, extended, or lost. What I do know is that NIH has already blown past its own internal timeline, stated in its own forecast records, for getting it out the door. The next chart shows the set-aside funding tied to overdue forecasts.

I have also been tracking the subset of forecasts tied to congressionally mandated programs since May, when I first wrote about the HEAL Initiative, the Special Diabetes Program, Gabriella Miller Kids First, and others sitting in the queue despite statutory direction and dedicated appropriations. The scorecard below shows what has happened since. Of 56 forecasts I have tracked across 14 congressionally supported programs, 19 have posted. Thirty-three remain overdue.

One more piece of context. I have heard from sources inside NIH that OMB has paused NOFO publication altogether for the moment while it demands a new, simplified template for funding announcements. I cannot confirm the details of what this template will require or how long the hold will last, and I want to be careful not to overstate what I know. But if accurate, it means the NIH forecast backlog is frozen in place, with no public explanation and no timeline for when it will move again.

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