IBM keen on mainframe even after 42% revenue drop in Q2

Revenue from IBM’s z mainframe portfolio sunk 42% in the quarter ended June 30, dragging infrastructure revenue down 7% compared to the year-ago quarter. But Big Blue executives remain positive on the mainframe’s role as an important AI platform.

After warning of an earnings shortfall, IBM lowered its full-year forecast. It now expects 2026 revenue to grow between 4% and 5%, rather than its previous forecast of more than 5% growth. In the latest quarter, some parts of its business did well: Software revenue grew 5% in Q2 to $7.76 billion, fueled by 11% growth in hybrid cloud, 18% growth in data, and 3% growth in automation.

On the infrastructure side, IBM posted Q2 revenue of $3.8 billion, which is down 7%. Within that business, distributed infrastructure grew 37%, but those gains were offset by a 10% decline in hybrid infrastructure and IBM Z’s 42% drop.

In a July 14 letter to investors released prior to IBM’s July 22 earnings call, CEO Arvind Krishna warned of the earnings shortfall and laid out current challenges. He related the infrastructure performance shortfall to “wrapping on the launch of z17 in the second quarter” and stated: “Given this was the strongest start to a mainframe program in our history, we expected Infrastructure revenue to decline low-single digits for the year, beginning this quarter. What played out was worse than our expectations, driven by a shortfall in our Z performance and the associated software stack, primarily in Transaction Processing.”

In the last few weeks of June, customers shifted capex spending and started purchasing more AI infrastructure components in the form of servers, storage, and memory “to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases,” Krishna stated. “This dynamic impacted client buying patterns. While we anticipated some supply chain related impact in our expectations, we did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization.”

Yet despite challenges this last quarter, z17…