A letter from 2016 to 2026

This is a fictional letter, grown out of me musing about "what would
a person ten years ago think about 2026? What would they expect?" No
time travelers were hurt in the making of this letter.
Hey future me! How's it going? I'm writing this letter now for you to
open ten years later. So much is changing in the world that it feels
like a good time to write things down, have something to come back to,
you know? I'm curious what the future is like! But of course I can
only write about the present.
What is tech like in 2026? Right now it feels like things are on an
exciting trajectory. I've been a Linux user for a long time but it
used to feel pretty lonely trying to explain to people what "free and
open source software is". Well nowadays "open source" is winning, and
I guess we can thank Web 2.0 for all that!
I wouldn't say open source is perfect. It could do a lot better in
terms of diversity. That's true of tech generally also. But I think
peoples' hearts are in the right place, and things are getting better,
even if there are systemic problems. We're seeing more and more people
enter programming through outreach and diversity programs. There's no
doubt that marginalized people still face systemic discrimination, but
I have no doubt that in general, we're moving in the right direction,
and people seem to care.
Right now I'm hearing a lot about Artificial Intelligence. AlphaGo
just won its first game against a human professional Go player a few
months back, and I think it's unsettled a bunch of people. Where is
this tech going? Does it threaten our jobs, our worth as people in
society? But personally, I'm not too worried.
For one thing, a lot of tech CEOs have been talking about minimum
basic income. In a certain sense, it's a kind of social support
structure, and I like social safety nets, but generally they've been
pretty hard to sell with a lot of tech people for whatever
reason. It's not exactly clear to me where the money will come from
with minimum basic income if it's not taxes, which they seem
insistent isn't necessary. I'm sure we'll figure that out though. The
key thing is, if not as many people who need to work, then we'll have
more resources available.
The question is, what gets automated away. And the answer seems
pretty clear right now: we automate away the boring, tedious
stuff. Yeah, maybe some truck drivers will lose their jobs, trucking
will probably be the first field to go. But these systems aren't
particularly creative, and that's where the human spark is! With
everything boring automated away by AI, we can finally focus on the
creative parts of life that make life meaningful: writing, artwork,
music, and let's not forget, computer programming! (After all, if
computer programming as an industry got automated away, everything
else would topple after that, so there's not much reason to over-focus
on that one. I don't think programming is a particularly automateable
job, anyway, not during the timeframe of my career.) Anyway, with
society freeing up so many more resources, maybe we can redirect them
into the places that really matter. Education could become a lot more
personalized, after all, if we used those excess resources to pay
teachers and professors. And why not, with so many resources freed up?
Still, who owns the AI? I'm excited that a nonprofit called OpenAI
started recently. This really seems like the right thing, because if AI
is going to develop, it's really important that it be open source and
developed by an organization that doesn't put profit first. It has to
be in the public interest!
And there are some pretty cool people working there. Sam Altman, he
worked at Y Combinator, where a lot of interesting startups have come
out of. Elon Musk, who honestly has given me a lot of hope... someone
who really cares about ethics in tech! And a bunch of other smart
people.
I don't mean to praise tech CEOs too much. Look, my background is as
an open source hacker. I grew up making "Micro$oft" jokes on Slashdot,
but even then, maybe my assumptions were in the wrong place. Maybe I
got it wrong. I mean, Bill Gates seems to have poured his money into
making the world a better place. So maybe I got that wrong.
Some things have gotten more annoying recently. Smartphones are
getting pretty good, but I'm sick of app stores already. And it's
harder to buy a laptop I can install Linux on. I don't know, maybe
this is just a phase. We're starting to see people of my generation
grow into adults. Unlike previous generations, we experienced how
important it is to keep the internet free (just look at how great we
did at pushing for Net Neutrality, the whole Internet rallied around
it!) and to make computing accessible. I don't think we're going to
let computers be locked down for future generations, we're going to
push to make the concepts of computing more accessible. 3d printers,
hackerspaces, etc... there's lots of reasons to think that computing
is heading more and more into users' hands. When me and my friends
start having kids, I'm sure our priorities are going to be making sure
that they have an open and free computing environment, one that
respects them. Every generation seems to be getting more technically
aware anyway, I can't wait to see just how much Gen Z and Gen Alpha
blast pass Millenials in terms of technical prowess with computers.
And I'll admit, I'm blogging a lot less, more and more is going into
"social media" feeds. But it's hard to not deny: people are getting
more reach than they ever have before on these platforms, and that
feels really good. Democratizing, I'd even say. Twitter, especially,
seems like a force for public good; it's hard to deny that after
seeing Black Lives Matter's success. If there's a social media company
I'd put my bet on that has the well being of democratic discourse in
the right place, I'd say it's Twitter.
Still, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't anxious right now. We're in the
primaries of the 2016 presidential election. I'm not too worried
though. The Republican side is a total shit-show; they have a billion
candidates, and it looks like the lead candidate is... Donald Trump?
What a clown. There's no way that guy's going to win. I've been having
arguments with some of my friends who are Bernie Bros, but I'm backing
Hillary Clinton for one simple reason: we need a candidate that can
win. Anyway, I'm checking fivethirtyeight every day, and I really just
don't think this is going to be a close election. So maybe I shouldn't
be so nervous.
Oh yeah, one more thing... I just made an exciting announcement to the
world! I came out as trans! Goodbye "Sam", hello "Samantha"! It was
pretty scary to come out, but Time did that whole piece about the
Transgender Tipping Point a couple of years ago with Laverne Cox on
the cover. Deep down, I've known all my life I was trans, but I
couldn't really come out to myself or to others until now. It's good
to be in an environment where I know that I can do so and things are
getting safer and safer for people like me.
Anyway, that's it. I guess by 2026 Clinton will be out of office and
well, the pendulum would have swung back to a Republican being in the
white house again, and you're probably sitting in the middle of
midterms worrying about what's going to happen. But you've got
this. I'd ask for a letter in return, but I guess time only goes one
way!
From your past self to your future self, good luck, and take care!