乌克兰"突破"神话为何从未终结
乌克兰40天对俄纵深打击行动到期后，战场态势几乎没有变化，俄军反而取得小幅推进。打击未能达成核心政治目标——说服特朗普继续对乌军援，进展数日内便消退。俄罗斯随即发动战争以来最大规模的弹道导弹袭击之一，并攻击黑海港口与商船，乌克兰GDP可能下降1.5%。
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收藏卡斯特罗数十年的对抗，是否葬送了古巴？
卡斯特罗执政时期，古巴在美苏冷战格局中保持了惊人的外交独立性。1962年古巴被逐出美洲国家组织时，实际并未依附中苏任何一方，而是同时从两国获取利益。苏联驻古巴大使记录显示，卡斯特罗宁可承受代价也要证明政治自主。1975年起古巴出兵安哥拉，是其独立外交的标志性行动。
美国与以色列开战近半年，伊朗为何没有经济崩溃
美国与以色列对伊朗发动战争近半年，预期中的经济崩溃并未发生。伊朗经济处于数十年最差水平，制裁抹去二十年增长，战争造成数千亿美元基础设施损失，但停滞而非崩溃才是更准确的描述，就业已在初期冲击后恢复。没人知道还能承受多少额外压力才会引发预期的政治结果。
美国在伊朗战争中损失45架"死神"无人机，价值至少13亿美元
美国在伊朗战争中已损失45架MQ-9"死神"无人机，总价值至少13亿美元，占战前机队约25%。部分损失并非被击落，而是通信链路中断所致。卡托研究所防务专家指出，这反映出美国正在持续抽调军火库支持伊朗战场——先是拦截弹，再是海军部署，现在是无人机。此外，MQ-4"海神"无人机坠毁、E-3预警机受损、远程精确打击导弹几乎耗尽，五角大楼已向国会申请数百亿美元补充资金。
以色列创建虚假智库，疑似试图欺骗AI聊天机器人
以色列政府通过Piro公司创建虚假智库Hanover Institute，一周内发布100多篇文章试图影响ChatGPT、Claude、Gemini等AI聊天机器人的回答。这些文章模仿美国智库格式，使用中性语气、具体数据和强引用，被AI检测工具判定为AI生成。NewsGuard分析师指出LLM倾向于接受带有统计数据、强引用和来源的内容，这种"AI故事优化"服务已收费90万美元。 
特朗普正跌跌撞撞走向更明智的对朝政策？
特朗普突然宣布大幅削减美韩联合军演，称其成本过高且向平壤释放"敌对信号"，可能损害与金正恩的关系。这是他在第二任期内的又一次政策转向，与其第一任期2018年新加坡峰会后无限期暂停军演的做法一脉相承。削减军演符合华盛顿和首尔稳定半岛局势、重启外交的 broadly shared interest，但具体"大幅削减"的幅度尚不明确。2019年河内峰会后军演恢复曾被视为特朗普-金正恩外交破裂的 overlooked factor。
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