Could the 2026 election results lead to a decrease in political polarization?

I have some hope, for the following reasons:

1. The incoming Democrats in Congress include some centrists and some on the left. Mix them in with the ones who are already there, and we can expect divisions on general ideological grounds and on specific issues such as Israel/Palestine, data centers, etc.

2. There have always been congressional Republicans who detest Trump, but they’ve shown close to zero defections from the president’s policies. But now that they’re the minority, the forces keeping them in line will be weaker. Also they are getting the point that general elections as well as primaries are threats to them.

My hope is that there will be some important issues that split within each party, leading to cross-party coalitions. I’m not saying this would be a cure for polarization—back in 1993, the vote on NAFTA split the two parties, and that did nothing to stop the Newt Gingrich-led polarization that took over soon after—but maybe it would be a step forward.

To put it another way, I think of there being two components to partisan polarization. One component is a natural consequence of connections between issues: there’s a logic to the left and right representing different coalitions and being represented by two political parties. The other component is not so good, it’s the lockstep conformity that leads to candidates taking extreme positions to appeal to primary election voters, presidents crafting policies to satisfy moderates just enough to get the threshold of required votes, and party-line votes to confirm unqualified cabinet officials. Maybe some open disputes on high-profile issues will make pure partisan voting less of an expected thing, so that legislators can vote against their party leadership without it being such a big deal, which in turn could motivate moderation among their leaders. Which does not mean that non-centrist policies on the left or right could not be passed, just that they’d require coalition building of some sort..

Political polarization has been steadily increasing for the past thirty-five years, so it seems like it would be a mistake to bet against more of the same. But trends can occasionally reverse; nothing lasts forever. Back when my colleagues and I were starting to do research in political science, the incumbency advantage had been steadily increasing for forty years . . . but then the trend reversed.

Also, partisan polarization is a funny thing: some people are strongly motivated to vote for Republicans because they hate the Democrats and what they stand for; others are strongly motivated to vote for Democrats because they hate the Republicans etc. There aren’t too many voters who actually like either party, at least not on a national level. To borrow a physical analogy, you could say that political polarization is maintained by tension, not compression.

P.S. Somewhat relatedly, NYT columnist offers epically stupid take on 2026 midterm elections.

P.P.S. I think I blew it by not using a clickbait title such as “Polarization is so over.”