Anthropic Investors Push for Cautious Valuation Closer to $1.5 Trillion

The rout in technology stocks last week has big investors who plan to participate in Anthropic’s IPO coalescing around a lower valuation for the artificial-intelligence giant.

In the past several days, institutional investors told the Claude maker and its advisers that the company’s valuation in its planned IPO later this month should be around $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, according to people familiar with the matter, well below figures closer to $2 trillion that had been bandied about in recent months.

The investors cite a list of concerning factors including choppy markets and growing concerns about overexposure to AI bets. Political backlash to data centers and uncertainty around how soon hyperscalers such as Amazon.com and Meta Platforms could show AI-related profits are also weighing on investors’ minds.

Anthropic hasn’t finalized a valuation target and is also still considering how many shares it plans to sell. It had already been hearing from some investors after its investor day last month that the valuation should be closer to $1.5 trillion, Reuters previously reported.

That was before double-digit drops in technology stocks including Intel and Alphabet last week after a string of disappointing earnings results. Alphabet reported growth in Google’s search-advertising business slowed, hurt by “AI-mode” queries, Amazon’s revenue missed analyst expectations and Intel forecast a prolonged slowdown in personal-computer sales.

Some investors say they trust Anthropic’s chief financial officer Krishna Rao to set a conservative valuation and give priority to delivering IPO investors a first-day “pop” in the stock price. They believe that even if Anthropic debuts at a roughly $1.5 trillion valuation, it could jump to $2 trillion by the end of the first trading day. Elon Musk’s SpaceX jumped 30% during its first day trading in June—before widespread investor jitters around AI had taken hold.

Anthropic plans to launch its roadshow pitch to investors as soon as next week, with its stock-market debut on track for the week before Thanksgiving. It will suggest a target valuation at the time of the roadshow launch by revealing the number of shares it hopes to sell and a target price range.

SpaceX chose an unorthodox route and named a single price for the IPO when it launched its roadshow. Anthropic is expected to take a more traditional route and propose a range, according to people familiar with the offering.

Anthropic said in an updated filing Monday that its revenue hit $17 billion in the three months ended Sept. 30, up from $11.6 billion in the prior quarter. The revenue increase was partially offset by $600 million in price reductions introduced from new model versions and contractual discounts, the company disclosed.

It also provided more detail on its massive computing spending, disclosing that it entered into purchase commitments and lease agreements with an aggregate committed spend of approximately $895.4 billion. The commitments include approximately $447.5 billion expected to be incurred before the end of 2030; substantially all the rest is likely to hit between 2031 and 2045.

The mood shift is spreading to other companies eyeing the public markets. Many are waiting to see how Anthropic performs before taking any big steps. If the listing goes off without a hitch, investors expect a flood of offerings early next year.