Nvidia Rebounds but Its Stock Chart Is Looking Really Ugly

Nvidia stock reached a record high in October but ended the month 10% down. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Key Points

Nvidia stock fell 10% to $204.64 in October despite reaching a record closing price of $239.24 early in the month.
Walter Zimmerman of ICAP Technical Analysis said a key weekly support line for Nvidia was decisively broken last week.
Zimmerman noted that the next step down for Nvidia stock could be at $185.94, while a 61.8% drop would be at $92.99.

Nvidia is on a bad run but things could be about to get much worse—if its stock chart is anything to go by.

The stock fell 10% to $204.64 in October despite reaching a record closing price of $239.24 early in the month. Shortly after that all-time high, ICAP Technical Analysis warned that the stock was at risk of peaking with its weekly chart resembling a “big, bearish, rising wedge.”

Well, ICAP’s update isn’t an encouraging one. The key weekly support line was “decisively broken last week,” chief technical strategist Walter Zimmerman said in a note Sunday.

The next step down could be at $185.94, he said, while noting that the Fibonacci retracement—a 61.8% drop—would be at $92.99.

“For those who follow Nvidia as if it were a cult, that may seem absurdly low. However Nvidia last traded at $93 per share back on Apr.7, 2025,” Zimmerman said. “Only 19 months ago. Not like 19 years ago.”

“What has changed in the last 19 months? Valuations went to the outer solar system.”

There is one last hope for the bulls, though. The stock needs a sustained reversal higher before it reaches $197.73.

Technical analysis is just one part of the story and doesn’t include fundamentals or broader factors. But those aren’t going in Nvidia’s favor at the moment either, with fears over the artificial-intelligence boom hurting tech stocks.

Nvidia was up 1.6% to $207.98 ahead of the open Monday, though. Maybe all is not lost.

Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@dowjones.com

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