Germany Misses Gas Storage Target as Cold Snap Sets In

Germany is set to miss its official target for filling natural gas storage sites, leaving it with a reduced buffer against surging winter demand.

With a cold snap setting in, German gas reserves were only 61.17% full as of Friday, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe show. That’s well short of a Nov. 1 goal of about 70%, despite authorities’ efforts to ramp up fuel purchases via state-owned energy company SEFE over the past month.

While data for Nov. 1 is not expected until after the weekend, Germany’s economy ministry said Friday it won’t reach its target.

The shortfall comes as colder weather is forecast to sweep across Germany and much of Europe in the coming days, potentially boosting demand for gas for heating. Average temperatures in Berlin, Frankfurt and Munich are expected to slide 2C to 4C below normal, according to Vaisala meteorologist Matthew Dross. In southern and eastern Germany, temperatures could dip below freezing, government forecaster DWD said.

European gas prices have already tripled this year as the Iran war disrupts global energy trade, while uncertainty over how long the conflict will last has hampered stockpiling efforts. Germany — Europe’s largest economy and home to an energy-intensive manufacturing sector — is particularly ill-prepared for prolonged spikes in winter demand, with gas buffers trailing the European Union average of 75%.

A high-pressure weather pattern is also forecast to bring calm and cloudy days with periods of very little wind, conditions known as Dunkelflaute that can curb wind and solar generation.

The situation has echoes of the energy crisis four years ago, when the war in Ukraine choked off pipeline gas supplies from Russia, hitting Germany particularly hard. After decades of reliance on Russian gas, Germany has since made strides in bolstering its energy security. Even so, fellow European Union member, Italy, has criticized Berlin for not doing enough to replenish inventories this year.

Meanwhile, European natural gas futures surged past €100 a megawatt-hour last week for the first time since 2022 amid fears the Iran war could further disrupt global gas supplies. While prices remain well below records reached during the previous energy crisis, they will likely remain elevated if disruptions persist, adding to cost-of-livingpressures that have fueled social unrest across Europe.

“Entering this winter with record low stocks means Europe is extremely exposed to the volatile global LNG market and will need to compete directly with Asian giants such as China and Japan, for flexible US cargoes,” said Anise Ganbold, head of research for Global Energy Markets and Hydrogen at the Aurora Energy Research think tank.

A spokesperson for the German Economy Ministry said current gas reserves should enable the country to get through the winter and that supply sources “are now more more diversified than at the beginning of the energy crisis.”

“Gas comes, in particular, via pipelines from Norway, via LNG terminals, and via our European neighbors,” she said in response to an emailed request for comment. “Germany is closely integrated into the European gas network system.”