Best F'ng buying opportunity in a while
Posted a couple of weeks ago about the AI trade. Got a truckload of negative comments, some positive as well. Well my whole thesis is that we we're a couple of years into an AI capex cycle, with a couple more to go. The market since then has really taken a hit, but on the other hand we got these insights during earnings season: 1. META : Capital raise through a new share class that would allow the company to raise 700bn, while Zuck continues to control the company. 700bn is not a target, but a ceiling. Still pretty crazy throwing that number as a possibility. 2. Amazon : Jassy said they think this might be a 10-20 yr investment cycle, going FCF negative and also guiding 40%+ growth for AWS for the next 2 years. Think growing 40% for 2 years at that scale. They had never given 2 year guidance on AWS growth. There is an a16z interview (mid-oct), where he basically explains his long term view on AWS, that demand is across the board and not concentrated in ANT or OpenAI. 3. Google : Leaving aside Search results, cloud business booming. So much that they had to rent short term compute capacity to cover demand for clients. On the back of this, also, raising capex, FCF negative. Already did an 80bn or so capital raise plus issuing a fair amount of debt over the past months. 4. Intel : mixed results, PC getting hurt on the back of memory prices. Also, signaling that memory scarcity will remain. Crazy AI demand for CPUs (confirmed by Meta and Microsoft as well) 5. SK Hynix : Crazy guidance, scarcity until 2030 according to them. I would say that is on the aggressive end, but many other players are also extending the shortages from 2027 to 2028 (directionally in line). I think we are in a max pressure environment (oil, rates, midterms...). But these are the set ups where you make real money; when everyone is pulling away and there is a huge disconnect between fundamentals and people in the AI frontline, and boomer money managers covering their asses or HFs blowing up. I would just say, don't lever up to the tits, maybe just to the belly button... if we get some sort of de-escalation in middle east the dominos will fall fast (lower oil, lower rates, risk on mode all on the back of much better AI fundamentals), but be prepared to maintain your positions and don't get liquidated. Top picks -> SK Hynix (most uncontracted capacity in the memory space) / Nebius (Short-term contracts on their compute capacity, will benefit from increasing compute spot prices and has a much more conservative capital structure compared to others, tons of execution risk though) -> Broadcom, Vertiv, Arista Networks, GE Vernova, TSMC, ASML (less short-term upside than SK and NBIS, but very long runway to continue to compound).