Six questions about political polarization and my responses

Mary Murray writes:

I am a Year 12 student in the UK currently completing an Extended Project Qualification (EPQ), an independent research project equivalent to half an A-Level. I intend to study law at a competitive university and hope to pursue a career as a foreign correspondent covering the United States in the future. My strong interest in contemporary American politics, is what has inspired me to aim to do this. My EPQ explores modern political polarisation in the United States, focusing on debates surrounding constitutional rights such as gun legislation, abortion, and freedom of speech. As well as the role of the U.S. Supreme Court and the media in shaping political discourse and public opinion. I would be extremely grateful for the opportunity to ask you a few questions about American politics. Your expert opinion would not only be invaluable to helping me succeed in my EPQ, but also really helpful in providing me advice on how to get into such a specific field.

Here were her questions:

1. Political polarisation is frequently described as being at unprecedented levels in the United States. How do experts measure polarisation, and what are the key limitations of these measurements? 2. When examined using data from the past few decades, do you believe contemporary American polarisation represents a significant structural shift compared to late 20th-century politics? 3. To what extent is modern political polarisation driven by political elites and party leadership rather than by ordinary voters? 4. Is there clear evidence that modern media increases political polarisation, or does it mainly amplify the perception of division? 5. In your research, does redistricting significantly contribute to political polarisation, or are broader social and ideological factors more important? 6. Some experts argue that rising affective polarisation poses risks to democratic norms. Based on available data, do you believe current levels of division threaten democratic stability in the United States?

And here are my responses:

1. Three ways that experts measure trends in polarization are from votes in legislatures (Democrats voting more consistently on the left and Republicans voting more consistently on the left), individual votes (less split-ticket voting, more party-line voting), and surveys of political attitudes (Democrats more consistently taking positions on the left, Republicans more consistently taking positions on the right).

2. Yes, definitely.

3. It’s both. Polarization mostly starts in the elites and then trickles down to ordinary voters.

4. It’s both. Much of political polarization is indeed the perception of polarization; also, though, there’s evidence that partisan media can move people to hold more extreme views.

5. The U.S. Senate is about as polarized as the U.S. House, and the Senate isn’t subject to gerrymandering at all, so I think the answer is that there are fewer close races in general. Part of this is due to redistricting, but there’s also just more geographic variation in how people vote.

6. It’s hard to for me to say.