IS TRUMP A RATIONAL PEACEMAKER?

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A series of events took place in early October 2026 which shook the parameters of the Trump–Putin–Zelensky triangle. On October 8, Trump said Putin had agreed to release 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately “to the American and global marketplace”, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and a further one million after that. This deal implied that the US Treasury was suspending sanctions on Russian diesel exports until April 7, although other Russian assets, like those in American banks, remained frozen. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that a further three million tonnes of Russian diesel would be delivered “within a short period”, dependent on the condition of its refineries, which have been attacked by Ukraine – the first hint that Ukraine is to blame for the shortage of fuel… Ukraine’s reaction came fast: on October 9, Zelensky condemned Trump’s announcement of a deal to import Russian diesel into the US, calling it a gift to Putin that amounts to “an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged”; this condemnation was quickly backed by Ukraine’s European allies.

Just a day later, Trump reacted with his usual brutality: on October 10, he criticised Zelensky, saying he would “suggest” Ukraine get a new leader: “I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal because he could have made many deals and for some reason, he never does.” A White House official said the US had repeatedly asked Ukraine to halt its attacks on Russian diesel refineries, to no avail. Trump said millions more tonnes of Russian diesel would be supplied following the first tranches “based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries.” Asked about concerns that the deal with Russia could prolong the war in Ukraine, Trump said, “Zelensky could’ve settled this war many times … and he chooses not to.” He went on to slam Zelensky for striking Russian refineries, claiming the Ukrainian president “wants to make problems for the world.”

Another surprise soon followed: Trump announced that both Russia and Ukraine had accepted his proposal to stop destroying each other’s refineries and other energy sites for two months. Russia immediately broke this partial ceasefire and continued attacks on Ukrainian energy sites, while Ukraine decided to resume striking back. Among other ominous signs, Starlink slowed down Ukrainian internet access (under pressure from the US government, Musk claims), rendering Ukraine’s defence against Russian drones and rockets much less effective (the internet link has now been restored). Ukraine is running out of Patriot interceptor missiles as Zelensky and Trump clash over the war… The reasoning that sustains Trump’s acts is clear: diesel prices are going up because Ukraine is bombing Russian refineries, and Ukraine is doing this because it doesn’t want a peace deal. So Ukraine (and not events in the US–Israel–Iran triangle, i.e., Trump’s bungled politics there) is responsible for the high prices of oil products… This is also why the US didn’t react when Russia destroyed US properties in Ukraine (Coca-Cola, McDonald’s). In short, the US is more and more openly taking sides in the Russian–Ukrainian war.

In a further ominous anti-European twist, Russia again sharpened its nuclear doctrine: it formally declared that, if access to the Kaliningrad enclave is blocked, Russia will resort to all measures, including a nuclear attack. The irony is that Germany has at least the same historical right to Kaliningrad (Königsberg) as Russia has to the Donetsk region: Königsberg was never Russian; it was for centuries a German city which was, for some years, even the seat of the Prussian monarchs – the region was simply integrated into the USSR as a territorial gain after World War II…