The biggest ever investment theme has only just begun

If there is an abundance of anything these days, it’s billionaires telling us the age of abundance is nigh. They’d know first, I suppose. Elon Musk breeds like a golden hamster. And have you seen the size of the hedge around Jeff Bezos’s Los Angeles home?

As ever with tech optimists, the promise is less work. This time it’s thanks to AI. Four days a week (according to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang). Three and a half days (according to JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon). At this rate none of us will need to show up again after Christmas.

Bill Gates hovers on two days. Then again, he used to pull 80-hour weeks and boasted of never taking a holiday in Microsoft’s early years. It’s all nonsense, in my view. Monday to Friday is here to stay. I wouldn’t bet against Saturday and Sunday either.

Why? Because people will want to. In her 1983 book More Work for Mother, Ruth Schwartz Cowan described the paradox of women doing just as many chores at home in the century after 1870 despite all the new household gadgets. She argued that duties simply expanded.

Her numbers were later questioned by academics. Hours doing housework did fall. Crucially though, less scrubbing did not mean feet up. Women sought employment instead.

There is no doubt rising productivity has reduced the hours of toil — which per working person in rich countries has roughly halved since the late 19th century. But that doesn’t mean — as Bezos suggests — that AI will tempt us to revert to single-earner households.

New technology frees up time. But then we immediately want to spend it on something we value more. Usually, it is a better life.

What excites me as an investor is what that means for spenders of money today. It began as an upgrade from a cave to a hut. Now, in rich countries, we’re approaching the pointy end of Abraham Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. In Britain, for example, the share of spending on food and clothing has halved since the first household spending survey in 1957.

Sure, recent decades have produced useful stuff. Cars are reliable. Email and mobile banking save time. But these are nothing compared to the products and services to come. The companies of tomorrow will focus on what brings us the most joy.

For Maslow, these were things such as love and belonging, self-esteem, recognition, status and personal growth. The Gallup World Poll, which surveyed nearly 61,000 people in 123 countries between 2005 and 2010, confirmed that positive feelings were most associated with being social and feeling respected.

Evolutionary psychologists have waded in too. Douglas Kenrick believes mate acquisition, mate retention and parenting sit atop our hierarchy of needs. Even John Maynard Keynes in his 1930 essay “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren” predicted that once the “economic problem” was solved, humanity’s challenge would be how to live “wisely and agreeably and well”.

I predict all of the above will be the main driver of rich-world consumer demand — and hence growth and share prices — over the coming decades. Far-fetched? The wellness industry, which includes everything from nutrition to spas, had already reached $7tn in value in 2024, doubling since 2013. That’s bigger than the green economy, IT, tourism and sport.

Meanwhile a McKinsey survey reckons 85 per cent of consumers rank health and wellness as a priority. Getting a better night’s sleep is high on everyone’s list. And with a nod to Kenrick above, more than a quarter of couples who married last year met online.

Personally, I’d buy anything that guaranteed I’d stop procrastinating, communicate better with my wife, make my young kids eat vegetables and stop my teenagers from screaming at each other.

This is what keeps me up at night. So what if AI can sort my inbox or book a holiday? I may be slower — but I did those things in the past just fine. And frankly I don’t care if I miss a few school emails or discount flights to Málaga.

I would rather do more exercise, perhaps by joining the social sport platform Strava. The number of clubs that did so nearly quadrupled last year. Some new friends might be nice too. Businesses that could help me meet some, such as the social apps Timeleft or Meet5, are booming.

Half of the top 10 names in the S&P 500 didn’t exist when I began investing. What could a new business be worth if it could make every one of us who we want to be? AI would be small in comparison.

Yes, it sounds like New-Age mumbo jumbo. But I also thought that gyms would come and go.

stuart.kirk@ft.com