Intel Stock Is Upgraded. Why Losing $78 Billion in Market Value Is a Good Thing.

Intel stock was upgraded after shares fell more than 14% last week. (CN-STR / AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur upgrades Intel stock to Neutral from Underperform and maintains an $85 price target.
• The analyst says the risk/reward for Intel is more balanced with the stock near his price target after falling over 14% last week.
• Intel shares are rising Monday following the upgrade.

Sometimes down is up and up is down. That could be the case for Intel stock after shares of the chip maker tumbled more than 14% during last week’s artificial-intelligence trade selloff.

In many cases, this type of sharp share price might have triggered downgrades. But the inverse was true for Intel.

J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur upgraded Intel to Neutral from Underperform and maintained his price target of $85.

Intel stock rose 4.3% to $93.74 in premarket trading on Monday after ending Friday down 5.8% at $89.85. Last week was a bad one for Intel stock and shares of many chip companies. Intel fell more than 14% last week and as of the closing bell on Friday had declined 37% since closing at $142.35 on June 30.

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Intel lost $78.50 billion market value loss last week and has shed $226.82 billion in market capitalization since June 30.

That’s not all bad news in Sur’s mind as the analyst said in the research note that with Intel stock near his $85 price target the risk/reward “is much more balanced.”

“Despite near-term concerns on AI infrastructure spending sustainability, we believe increasing agentic AI workloads (CPU intensive) and a very tight supply chain for leading edge silicon should drive continued positive EPS revisions in the upcoming earnings season and through CY27,” Sur said.

J.P. Morgan’s more modest view on Intel is a bit of an outlier on Wall Street. Shares have an average Buy rating with a price target of $120.10, based on the 52 firms polled by FactSet. Intel has 16 Buy ratings, 28 Hold ratings, and one Sell rating.

Along with Intel, fellow chip maker stocks Nvidia , Micron Technology , and Advanced Micro Devices each rose in premarket trading on Monday.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF , or SOXX, also was rising 3.5% before the opening bell on Monday and was on pace to snap a nine-session losing streak.

William Blair analyst Richard de Chazal said in a research note Monday that financial markets last week revealed that even with solid demand, the AI buildout now depends much more on credit markets than was previously thought.

“In our minds, it is like a landlord borrowing heavily to build an office block, with three anchor tenants taking most of the space. The leases look secure, but if one tenant moves out at renewal or demands a lower rent, the landlord is still on the hook for the mortgage. As a result, investors are now demanding extra compensation for taking on that risk, meaning the pace of the buildout outside the hyperscalers is likely to slow unless borrowing costs come down,” de Chazal said.

Wall Street seems to be hoping the first batch of big tech earnings this week can help shift the AI narrative back toward compute and spending demand versus the recent ramp in scrutiny around funding.

Write to Kit Norton at kit.norton@barrons.com

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