How AI mega-rounds make life harder for VC firms

The $3.5tn venture capital industry has a size problem: valuations are ballooning but the number of deals is shrinking. Large rounds — those in excess of $100mn — made up four-fifths of global fundraising in the third quarter of 2026, according to CB Insights. The reason is that AI start-ups are sucking the oxygen out of the room — and that’s changing the calculus for those that back them.

Fewer-but-bigger deals pose a challenge to the so-called “power law” of VCs. This posits that the average fund can expect its portfolio to include perhaps nine duds for every handsome success. With AI companies calling for bigger cheques and repeat fundraisings, investors must put more eggs in a single basket — or take the bold decision to seek their returns in other sectors.

Money is still rolling in for those that can command large sums. Kleiner Perkins, which in another era backed internet stars Amazon and Google, this year raised $3.5bn across two AI-focused funds; a few months ago Andreessen Horowitz topped off $10bn-plus of similar funds with its $1.1bn Machine Age fund aimed at the physical build-out of AI.

Even stalwart investing firms must now share these bigger deals with big fish relatively new to the VC pond, though. That includes the venture divisions of large non-financial companies. Consider chipmaker Nvidia, which has bought stakes in start-ups such as French healthcare platform Doctolib and data centre developer Cloverleaf, offering not just cash but also access to silicon.

For those lacking billions to throw around, life has become harder and returns thinner. One answer is to cut costs. So-called solo capitalists are a growing breed, and can offer start-ups speedy decisions too. Smaller shops can also use AI to cut training and legal costs and to provide leads and intel. Those who don’t want to write large cheques can also target more speculative innovations — such as AI neo-labs, often little more than an idea and a bunch of elite brains.

There has always been a fear of missing out among the VC industry. Duking it out with an expanded band of players ramps that up, helping founders secure fat cheques while eroding their investors’ diversification. With assets staying in private hands for longer, that looks a riskier proposition than the old model.

louise.lucas@ft.com