Joining the Wrong League

After mostly collecting and accumulating products of the Pokémon Trading Card Game for almost three years, I started selling for the first time. Since I’m trying to shift my portfolio a bit, a decent chunk needs to go. I listed my stuff on various marketplaces, including some chat groups I’m a part of.

I shared a long list of around 30 different items with pictures, prices, the works. Most of these I bought over two years ago, when the market was much cooler than it is now. As a result, some of the products I have are now quite rare. Sealed cases of coveted tins, collection boxes, and so on. I thought they would fly off the shelves, and, on some marketplaces, they do.

On one particular Discord server, however, the only two comments I got had the same gist: “You must be evading taxes.” It’s a weird accusation from any point of view, but I just shared more context and let the conversation rest. Despite this server having an active “investor” community and over 5,000 people constantly complaining about the lack of availability for good products, I got zero inquiries.

Meanwhile, on Cardmarket, I sold bundles of multiple boxes to several people within a few days. “What’s up with this one group?” I wondered. Eventually, it hit me: All of my Pokémon cards are in English—and almost no one in Germany collects in English anymore. Why? Because since the start of the big boom in late 2024, English product has become notoriously difficult to get. You mostly have to buy it on the secondary market. Retail prices in online shops? Maybe once in a blue moon, if you’re lucky. So most Germans pivoted‚ and even German stuff is hard enough to get.

But I didn’t just decide to collect in English because it was available at the time. English cards are always worth more. There are around 100 million native German-speakers in the world. English? Nearly four times as many, not counting those who speak it as a foreign language and are regularly exposed to it. That would be 1.5 billion people. Naturally, the market is much bigger. You’re reading this blog in English for the same reason, by the way.

When you look at how prices in Pokémon evolve over time, the language plays a big factor. You can get many boxes in Italian, French, Spanish, German, and other languages. None of them match English prices—and none of them appreciate as much over the years. If a German booster box increases from 100 euros to 300 euros over several years, its English equivalent might go from $120 to $500. It’s not uncommon for English products to be worth 50, 80, 100% more than their German counterparts.

Of course, collecting is more than just investing. But if the value of your collection is something you’re thinking about, your choice of language will play a big role. Many people in that chat group decided to collect in German because it was the path of least resistance. Now, they probably feel they can’t turn back. And that’s why they pass on great products—which will probably also appreciate more in the future than some of the variants they own.

In 2011, Geoffrey Moore gave a talk about his book Escape Velocity. He described a framework for helping companies continue to succeed instead of getting trapped in their own past. At one point, Geoffrey talked about a hierarchy of powers, the first being the most important: “If you’re in a category that’s growing at 100%, even if you’re kind of a doofus, you’re probably going to do pretty well this year. Vice versa, if you’re in a category that’s growing at 4%, you have enormous pressure on you to make sure you make every penny of your earnings.”

Category power applies well beyond business. If you’re collecting cards in a niche language only a few million people speak, they probably won’t explode in price. If you’re buying only ETFs, your returns will probably remain in the single digits. And if you’re making TikToks about none of the network’s latest trends, don’t be surprised if your stuff doesn’t go viral immediately.

There are many situations where slow and steady wins the race. Where agency and originality trump category. But there are also situations where you must give yourself the best possible odds, and in those, choosing the right category really matters. Don’t join the wrong league out of comfort.