Four Things to Watch When Tesla Reports Earnings

Coming into Tuesday’s trading, Tesla stock was down 16% this year. (Ludovic MARIN/AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• Tesla stock fell Tuesday as investors await the company’s third-quarter earnings report scheduled for Oct. 21.
• Tesla sold 487,000 cars in the third quarter, beating Wall Street expectations of closer to 450,000.
• Investors are looking for updates on Tesla’s Austin robo-taxi service and the capabilities of its humanoid robot, Optimus.

Tesla stock dropped early Tuesday as investors await next week’s earnings, scheduled for Oct. 21.

Shares of the electric-vehicle maker were down 0.8% in premarket trading at $374.86, while S&P 500 futures were flat and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.5%.

Coming into Tuesday’s trading, Tesla stock was down 16% this year, but up 3% over the past month, helped by better-than-expected third-quarter deliveries. Tesla sold 487,000 cars in the period. Wall Street was looking for closer to 450,000.

Tesla sold almost 500,000 cars in the third quarter of 2025. It’s been harder to sell EVs after the September 2025 expiration of the $7,500 federal purchase tax credit. All-electric share of the U.S. new car market peaked at almost 13% in the third quarter of 2025, says Citi analyst Mike Ward. It dropped below 5% in the first half of 2026, but has stabilized at about 6%.

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He expects U.S. EV penetration to move toward 10% in the coming years. EV sales trends will be one thing to watch when Tesla reports third-quarter numbers.

Investors will also be looking for robo-taxi and robot updates.

Tesla launched a robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025. Scaling the service has been slow, however. Investors would like to know when robo-taxis will contribute meaningfully to sales and earnings.

As for robots, investors would just like to see the capabilities of Tesla’s latest-version humanoid robot, Optimus. Tesla has been reticent to show Optimus off lately, fearing that competitors will glean insights from its technology.

Investors will also be watching profit. Wall Street expects quarterly earnings per share of about 45 cents, down from 50 cents in the year-ago quarter.

A beat with strong margins would be nice. Investors would trade that, however, for momentum in the robo-taxi and robot businesses.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@barrons.com.

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