Lula Narrows Gap to Bolsonaro in PoderData Poll

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A PoderData/Aya poll showed incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 49% of valid votes, compared with 51% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a statistical tie within the poll’s 1.8 percentage-point margin of error. The presidential runoff will be held on Oct. 25.

The poll, conducted from Oct. 10 to 12, showed the gap narrowing to 2 percentage points from 6. The senator fell 2 points, while the president gained the same amount compared with the Oct. 8 poll.

A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll, also released Tuesday, showed Bolsonaro with 52% of valid votes, compared with 48% for Lula. The poll surveyed 2,002 voters from Oct. 10 to 12 and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

A Quaest poll commissioned by Globo is due Wednesday, followed by Datafolha on Thursday.

Polls

The table below shows the latest presidential polling data. The figures may not be comparable because of differences in methodology and the scenarios presented to voters.

DateOct. 13Oct. 13Oct. 9Oct. 8Oct. 8Bolsonaro51%52%53%52%53%Lula49%48%47%48%47%

Upcoming Polls

Oct. 14Quaest/ O GloboOct. 10Oct. 13BR087292026Oct. 15Datafolha / FolhaOct. 13 Oct. 15BR004662026Oct. 16PoderData /AyaOct. 13Oct. 15BR042582026

More: ECO 4 BZ

Flávio visits Jair Bolsonaro

Flávio is expected to visit Jair Bolsonaro in Brasília on Tuesday morning. The former president is under house arrest, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes authorized the visit. The ruling allows visits to resume but prohibits their use for political or electoral purposes and bars the publication of statements or comments by the former president.

Candidates’ agenda

Flávio BolsonaroVisits his father in Brasília in the morning3:00 p.m. Meeting with MDB, in Sao Paulo5:00 p.m. Grand Meeting of Associations, in Sao PauloLula10:00: Ceremony on measures for individual micro-entrepreneurs

Election calendar

Oct. 9-23: election advertising on radio and television stationsOct. 25: second round