Russia Ships Less Crude on Slowdown in Black Sea Loadings

Russia is shipping less crude, as operations at its key Black Sea port slowed again amid rising security fears in the area.

In the four weeks through Oct. 11, overseas crude flows fell to 3.7 million barrels a day, tanker data compiled by Bloomberg showed. That was down by 110,000 barrels a day from the revised figure for the period to Oct. 4.Satellite images of the Sheskharis oil terminal at Novorossiysk show that tankers are spending four days moored at the main crude berths. That’s twice as long as similar-sized ships take to load at Russia’s Baltic facilities and has contributed to a marked slowdown in cargoes leaving the port. A fully-laden tanker was hit by drones after leaving Novorossiysk early last week, heightening worries among ship owners and crews around loading at the port.

Additionally, Moscow has also diverted all shipments of Kazakh crude to Sheskharis, freeing up slots at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga for its own cargoes. But the increase in flows from the Baltic location hasn’t fully offset the drop in Black Sea shipments.

Separately, Ukraine attacked at least four oil refineries last week, including the Omsk plant, Russia’s largest. Those strikes force processors to halt, or reduce, runs and divert crude that can’t be processed into the export stream.

US President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of an energy ceasefire, under which Ukraine would stop refinery strikes and Russia would halt attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, seemed to come as a surprise to the leaders of both countries. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country supported the ceasefire, but would respond to Russian attacks. The Kremlin had nothing to say on an “energy truce” and has continued to target energy infrastructure in Ukraine.

Elsewhere, Indian refiners have cut back Russian crude purchases for November delivery, as rising competition from China is pushing up prices at a time when buyers can tap alternative shipments from the Middle East. Deliveries of Moscow’s crude to India slipped to about 1.5 million barrels a day in September, down by a quarter from the previous month, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Crude Shipments

In the week to Oct. 11, some 34 tankers loaded 24.64 million barrels of Russian crude, vessel-tracking data and industry reports show. The volume compared with a revised 25.94 million barrels on 38 ships the previous week.

Shipments from Novorossiysk fell back, with satellite images showing the same tankers moored at the oil terminal berths for most of the week; the reason for the delays isn’t clear. The images also show the badly damaged tanker Aframax Rio anchored to the south of the port.

Weekly shipments can be volatile, affected by weather, maintenance work, sanctions, military activity and the timing of departures.

There were two shipments of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade from Novorossiysk during the week. Moscow diverted all shipments of Kazakh crude last month through the Black Sea port, freeing up more capacity for its own barrels at Ust-Luga on the Baltic, which is seen as safer.

The amount of Russian crude on the water fell back last week, reflecting the drop in shipments amid steady deliveries to refiners in China and India.

Ships hauling Arctic crude to China are typically transferring their cargoes onto other vessels. These transfers usually take place east of Singapore from ships taking the Red Sea route and off Nakhodka or Zarubino for those taking the Northern Sea Route. Most Sokol cargoes are also transferred, usually in Kozmino Bay. These transfers can introduce delays, boosting the amount of oil at sea.

Export Value

On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s exports edged higher to $2.67 billion a week in the 28 days to Oct. 11, up by $60 million from the revised figure for the period to Oct. 4. That took the value of Moscow’s crude shipments using this measure to a new high since before Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Higher four-week average prices for Russia’s key crudes more than offset the drop in flows.

On a weekly basis, the value of exports rose by about $40 million to $2.7 billion, with higher Urals prices more than offset by a second straight drop in shipments.

Flows by Destination

China and India remain the biggest buyers of Russian crude by a considerable margin. But it’s not always possible to assign a final destination to individual cargoes until well into their voyage, leaving many of the more recent shipments on tankers showing interim destinations, such as Suez, Port Sudan, or Singapore. These are recorded as “Unknown Asia” until a credible final destination is available. Ships still showing their destinations as their Russian loading ports, or places such as Gibraltar, are recorded as “Other Unknown.”

Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, edged lower to 3.62 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Oct. 11, down from a revised 3.67 million in the period to Oct. 4.

Shipments to Moscow’s remaining customers in the Mediterranean region fell to a new low since before the Ukraine invasion, dropping to about 80,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Oct. 11.

All of the barrels loaded during the most recent four-week period and heading to customers in the Mediterranean are going to Turkey. A flurry of shipments to Egypt that began early in the year appears to have petered out, at least for now.

Flows to Syria have fallen to zero since August after the Mediterranean nation agreed to “drastically” reduce Russian oil imports in negotiations with the US on lifting remaining sanctions.

Shipments to the region may be revised higher once destinations for almost 1.9 million barrels a day of crude become clear. Historically, most cargoes on ships showing intermediate destinations have been delivered to India or China.

NOTES

This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, Oct. 20.

All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.

Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.

Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd. and satellite imagery covering Russian ports.

If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.