Petrol went up ₹7.35/L. Here’s who absorbed the rest of the Hormuz shock, and why it may not last

Retail price: Delhi petrol ₹94.77 → ₹102.12 (IOC rates, May 2026). It is still ₹102.12 now. Hormuz: about half of India’s crude came through the Strait (Kpler, Jan–Feb 2026). IMF PortWatch tracked transits fell from 85 a day before the crisis to 4 on 4 Oct. One caveat: Kpler reported late-September crude flows above pre-war levels, which suggests many ships may be sailing with trackers off, so tracked-ship counts likely overstate the drop in actual oil flows. Buffer 1: the ₹10/L excise cut (27 Mar), which the ministry says costs about ₹14,000 crore a month. Buffer 2: OMC under-recoveries of about ₹30,000 crore a month on petrol, diesel and LPG (ministry briefing, 8 May). Buffer 3: Russian crude at about 52% of India’s June imports (Kpler). Brent: about $104 (9 Oct). Each buffer has a cost or a limit. Curious which one people here think breaks first.