Why OpenAI’s revenue numbers really matter

OpenAI claimed this week that it had solved hundreds of very hard maths problems. Meanwhile, it inadvertently created a new one. Sam Altman’s AI lab shared a revenue figure with investors that was $20bn lower than what was widely reported to be the case in September. The confusion is a real problem, because when OpenAI sneezes, the entire market catches a cold.

Revenue has an imperfect relationship with reality at the best of times. It can be booked long before cash arrives, or long after. AI has added complexity: accountants must establish the exact timing of a sale in a world of token bundles, subscriptions, agentic tasks and licences. Over the course of a year, the impact of such quirks would be smoothed out. But tech’s habit of “annualising” revenue can amplify the lumps.

Should companies then ditch these “run rate” digits? Not so fast. For those growing as quickly as OpenAI or Anthropic, backwards-looking sales figures — OpenAI made just $13bn in 2025, for example — are even less useful. But it’s important to know how the sausage is made. For example, OpenAI’s “net” figure does not include the portion of a customer’s bill that goes to partners such as Microsoft. Anthropic’s “gross” number, in contrast, does.

Investors who already own OpenAI or Anthropic shouldn’t be led astray by any of this. They ought to be in a position to ask the company what a given figure means, and how it was concocted. Confusion that arises around “whisper numbers” is only really a problem for outsiders, and Altman and his Anthropic counterpart Dario Amodei have no duty to set them straight.

But the ambiguity can still have unhelpful consequences. For one thing, vague numbers may lay the groundwork for inflated valuations when much-hyped companies finally go public. By the time the companies publish their audited statements, investors have a preconceived impression of what the company is worth. Elon Musk’s SpaceX prepared the market for a valuation of at least $1.5tn months before the market got a look at its finances. Anthropic’s backers are seeking a $2tn valuation, the FT has reported.

A more serious issue is that OpenAI and Anthropic’s sales growth is now an input in the valuations of many other companies. Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and Oracle are among those whose future earnings depend in part on what happens to the AI labs — but everyone from banks and turbine makers to power companies is part of the ecosystem too. When expectations shift, they shift for everyone.

The best thing for the market, then, is for OpenAI and Anthropic to get their skates on and go public as soon as possible. The world will then have access to detailed accounts; annualised numbers will lose their power to shock, and tech companies’ securities can be priced more efficiently. If Altman and Amodei want to make the world better at maths, they know what to do next.

john.foley@ft.com