Getting better causal inferences by using more information (my talk at Stanford this coming Wed)

It’s the political economy seminar at Stanford business school, Wed 14 Oct at noon in room M109:

Lagged regression, difference in differences, two way fixed effects, regression discontinuity, placebo controls: these are different methods used when estimating causal effects from panel data. We’re working on a general approach using multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) that aims to get the best from all these approaches. We demonstrate with a range of examples, including observational studies in economics, political forecasting, and controlled experiments in biology. This is joint work with Jori Korpershoek and others.

Come and ask me some tough questions!

The talk will be pretty open-ended. We have lots of ideas and some successes (for example, the chickens paper) but it’s mostly open questions and promising research directions. Should be fun.

I won’t be talking about this paper or this paper at all—that’ll have to wait until I’m invited to speak in the English department.